Indian stock market: India’s benchmark equity indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, closed significantly lower on Friday, May 29, after a sharp late-session decline.
For most of the trading day, both indices moved within a tight range as investors remained cautious amid ongoing uncertainty over a possible US-Iran agreement. However, selling pressure intensified in the final hour of trade, triggering a steep market fall. The Sensex tumbled nearly 1,300 points, while the Nifty 50 dropped to an intraday low of 23,485.
At the close, the 30-stock Sensex was down 1,092 points, or 1.44%, at 74,775.74. The Nifty 50 also ended weak, falling 359 points, or 1.50%, to settle at 23,547.75.
Stock Market Outlook next week
According to Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical and macroeconomic developments in the coming week, with investor attention firmly focused on the evolving US–Iran negotiations, broader diplomatic developments in the Middle East and the trajectory of crude oil prices.
“While expectations of a potential agreement have helped improve risk sentiment and drive a sharp correction in energy prices, investors remain cautious as a definitive breakthrough has yet to materialise. In the current environment, investor positioning is likely to remain selective and cautious, with confidence contingent on tangible progress on the diplomatic front and continued stability across energy and currency markets,” said Ponmudi.
Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market
1] RBI MPC meeting
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is set to convene from June 3 to June 5, 2026.
After two days of detailed policy discussions, Governor Malhotra will unveil the MPC’s final decision on Friday, June 5, 2026, around 10:00 AM IST. This will be followed by a press conference at 12:00 PM IST, where he is expected to discuss the economic outlook, key macroeconomic trends, and liquidity measures.
“The key event of the week will be the RBI monetary policy announcement on Friday. The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious stance amid rupee weakness, elevated bond yields, and inflationary risks,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking.
2] US-Iran war
According to an AFP report, Iranian state media said that a proposed memorandum of understanding with the United States envisages the release of $12 billion in Iranian assets that are currently frozen.
The report referred to an “unofficial” draft of the memorandum. A similar report aired by state television earlier this week was rejected by the White House, which described it as a “fabrication.”
The development comes a day after US President Donald Trump outlined his own version of a potential agreement aimed at ending hostilities between the two adversaries, with several key aspects disputed by Iranian officials.
According to Saturday’s state TV report, the United States has committed to granting Iran unrestricted access to $12 billion of its assets within 60 days, allowing the funds to be transferred to and utilized through banks in destinations chosen by Iran without any limitations.
“The biggest variable for markets continues to be the evolving US-Iran situation. Any confirmation of a broader ceasefire arrangement or meaningful progress in diplomatic negotiations could significantly improve global risk appetite and trigger relief rallies across emerging markets, including India. Conversely, any disruption to ongoing discussions may quickly reignite fears of energy supply disruptions, pushing crude oil prices higher and increasing market volatility,” said Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth.
3] Crude oil prices
Oil futures dropped more than 2% to six-weeks low on Friday, marking their sharpest weekly decline since early April, as investors awaited confirmation of a ceasefire agreement involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
Brent crude futures for July, which expired on Friday, settled at $92.05 per barrel, down $1.66 or 1.8%, while US WTI crude futures closed at $87.36 per barrel, falling $1.54 or 1.7%.
Brent crude has fallen around 11% this week, marking its sharpest weekly decline in seven weeks, while WTI has slid more than 9%, registering its steepest weekly drop in six weeks. Both benchmarks have also touched their lowest levels since mid-April.
“Crude oil remains the single most important macroeconomic variable for Indian equities at the moment. Although prices have cooled from their recent panic-driven spikes, Brent crude continues to trade at elevated levels. For an oil-import-dependent economy like India, sustained crude prices above the $100 per barrel mark pose risks to inflation, the fiscal balance, currency stability, and corporate profitability. Consequently, movements in the oil market are likely to remain a key determinant of market direction throughout the week,” Hariprasad.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
