Multiplex chain PVR Inox Ltd is set to close the curtains on the December quarter (Q3FY26) on a decent note. Multi-starrer Bollywood movie Dhurandhar has seen impressive box office collections worth over ₹400 crore so far.
Another boost to PVR’s occupancy is likely from Hollywood movie Avatar: Fire and Ash, to be released on 19 December. Expectations are high since the previous instalment of this franchise Avatar: The Way of Water had collected over ₹300 crore in India.
“On a conservative basis, if we assume, industry-wide box office collections settle at ₹3,000 crore and PVR Inox’s market share is at 30%, we arrive at a net box office collection (NBOC) figure of ₹900 crore for Q3FY26. We are pencilling in revenue of ₹1,800 crore for PVR in Q3FY26 versus ₹1,823 crore in Q2FY26 – its second-best quarter since the covid-19 pandemic,” said Jinesh Joshi, analyst at PL Capital. NBOC is gross box office collections minus tax.
The December quarter is typically strong for PVR, driven by festive releases. This year, Q3 had big-ticket movie releases such as Thamma, De De Pyaar De 2 and Kantara 2. This should mean higher occupancy for PVR. Occupancy improved to 25.7% in Q2FY26 from 22% in Q1.
Mixed bag
Despite a better outlook, the stock has been a laggard. PVR’s shares are down 20% so far in 2025, sharply underperforming the Nifty 500, which gave positive returns. “Content volatility has magnified for PVR post pandemic, leading to erratic quarterly performance, keeping the stock under pressure,” said Joshi.
The content line-up for Q4FY26 includes The Raja Saab, Border 2, Toxic and Dhurandhar Part 2. While some of these are big projects, consistency and quality of content are crucial pull factors for occupancy and earnings—variables that are not in PVR’s control.
Besides, competition from over-the-top (OTT) content remains a bother. Investors also need to watch developments related to the Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) deal. “For India exhibitors, Hollywood contributes 15-20% of gross box office collection, with WBD at around 4%; Netflix’s ability to shorten windows or test OTT-first launches could meaningfully drag Ebitda,” cautioned Elara Securities (India). In a worst-case scenario, around 4% revenue impact on PVR Inox may drag Ebitda by 6% in FY28, added the Elara report dated 11 December.
PVR is sticking to a capex-light expansion strategy and screen rationalization, but earnings upgrades depend on occupancy trends.
