Indian equities ended the week battered and bruised, as sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows, weakening earnings momentum and pre-budget jitters combined to drag benchmark indices sharply lower.
With the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex ending down about 2.5% over the week, India stood out as the worst-performing major market in this period.
Alongside, the Nifty 50 slipped below the crucial support level of 25,100, closing the week at 25,048.65. This leaves the index exposed to a possible slide below 25,000, as sentiments are typically fragile ahead of the Union Budget, said Vikas Gupta, chief executive officer (CEO) and chief investment strategist at Omniscience Capital. The last time the Nifty 50 closed below that level was on 3 October 2025, at 24,894.25.
Weak December-quarter earnings could further keep markets under pressure, experts said. A Mint analysis of 189 early results shows corporate profits hit their weakest point in at least three years, despite a notable acceleration in top-line growth.
Analysts expect markets to stay cautious in the coming week as investors weigh the Fed’s interest rate outlook against the upcoming Union Budget. Rising crude prices and the rupee’s fall to a record low of 91.95 against the US dollar may also add pressure, as concerns grow that India has limited policy headroom left to support growth.
Broad-based fall
With earnings confidence waning and global volatility rising, all sectors ended the week in the red. Realty stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off, dropping around 11% on concerns over execution delays and weaker sales expectations, experts said. Durables and telecom fell close to 5%, while power and healthcare slid about 4%.
“Realty, consumer and telecom stocks were all trading at high valuation multiples…(which) are not justified for the slower revenue and earnings growth (they’re projecting),” Gupta said.
Weighted down by premium valuations and a prolonged sluggish earnings cycle, Indian equities are seeing an exodus of foreign capital towards artificial intelligence-heavy markets like Taiwan and South Korea. This pivot left India among the worst-performing markets this week even as broader US-Europe trade tensions rattled the global landscape.
While US president Donald Trump’s softer stance on fresh European Union tariffs tied to his Greenland’s purchase proposal triggered a global relief rally, domestic equities struggled to participate.
Analysts flagged that FPIs have been building short positions on every market bounce, as their confidence on corporate earnings remains weak. Hence, any news-led relief rallies might have limited upside from here on, such as the Greenland-related bounce seen this week. FPIs have sold nearly ₹34,000 crore worth of shares in January so far.
What’s next?
At this juncture, Gupta prefers public and private banks, energy-transition themes spanning renewables and power, and infrastructure plays related to roads and railways ahead of the budget. He expects defence stocks to gain traction, too, but cautioned against high valuations.
This tactical preference aligns with broader market behaviour as well. A Mint analysis shows defence- and infrastructure-related stocks typically turn more volatile in the pre-budget week, as expectations of budget announcements heighten interest in these sectors.
The broader risk-off sentiment isn’t just affecting stocks. Even gold and silver, where investors seek shelter from equity market jitters, saw sharp swings this week. Bullion futures corrected 6-8% from fresh highs as US tariff threats eased in the middle of the week. Yet, spot gold and silver have outperformed equities in January, gaining 16% and 38%, respectively, while the Nifty 50 has fallen 4%.
