US-Iran war: Oil prices extended their rally on Monday, March 30, with Brent crude on track for a record monthly surge, after Yemeni Houthi forces carried out their first attacks on Israel over the weekend, further escalating the US-Israel conflict with Iran in the Middle East.
Brent crude climbed as much as 3.7% to $116.75 per barrel on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate rose above $100 before trimming its gains.
Back home, crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also witnessed a similar upward movement, rising as much as 2% to ₹9,573 per barrel.
Brent crude has rallied around 60% in March and is set for its third monthly gain as escalating tensions between the US and Iran disrupted global markets and heightened fears of a dual shock of rising inflation and slowing economic growth.
The conflict has now entered its fifth week, showing little sign of easing despite diplomatic efforts by Washington last week and separate peace talks held over the weekend in Pakistan.
What’s driving crude oil prices today?
Houthi forces launched missile strikes on Israel over the weekend and said their operations would continue until attacks on Iran and its allied militant groups come to an end.
Meanwhile, the United States has deployed thousands of troops to the region, heightening concerns over a potential ground invasion. According to a Financial Times report, Trump said he intends to “take the oil in Iran” and could target the export hub of Kharg Island — a move that could provoke strong retaliation from Iran. Earlier this month, the US carried out strikes on military facilities on the island.
The involvement of the Houthis introduces fresh risks to the crude market. Following the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, the group effectively blocked the Red Sea for most Western shipping, forcing vessels to take longer alternative routes. Any disruption to cargoes shipped through Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu would further tighten global supply.
On Sunday, Trump was quoted as saying by Reuters that aboard Air Force One that Iran had agreed to most of the 15 conditions proposed by the US to end the war, though he did not disclose specific details. Iran had earlier publicly rejected the proposal, insisting on terms that include retaining sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil prices outlook
According to Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Prices had corrected from recent highs near $120 per barrel amid hopes of a ceasefire, particularly after the Trump administration deferred potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 and proposed a 15-point peace framework.
Sachdeva further noted that crude oil prices are likely to trade within a wide and volatile range.
“Key supports are placed at $93 and $73 per barrel (Brent Crude), while on the upside, a retest of $120 remains plausible, with an extended move towards $150 per barrel not ruled out if geopolitical risks intensify further. In essence, the market remains firmly geopolitics-driven, with supply disruptions, strategic reserve actions, and policy responses collectively shaping the near- to medium-term trajectory of oil prices,” she said.
Meanwhile, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that US oil is currently trading near 101.5, showing mild consolidation after testing the 103 level. The broader trend remains bullish, with prices maintaining higher highs and higher lows along the ascending trendline amid ongoing geopolitical supply concerns, though facing immediate resistance near 102–103, according to the expert.
“On the upside, the 102–103 zone continues to act as a critical resistance band. A sustained move above 103 would signal strengthening bullish momentum and could extend the rally toward 105–106, with further upside potential toward the 110–115 range. On the downside, a sustained break below 100 could push prices toward the 95–96 zone, which serves as a stronger support area, while the 91–88 region is expected to provide additional downside protection. The near-term bias remains inclined toward buy-on-dips as long as prices hold above key support levels,” Ponmudi added.
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