The Indian market continues to trade in a range-bound manner with a negative bias, having ended the last four trading sessions lower. Escalating tariff concerns continue to dampen investor sentiment, while the lack of fresh domestic triggers and uncertainty over a potential trade deal with the US are also weighing on the market.
Although the domestic economy is expected to regain strength in the current fiscal year—supported by improving liquidity conditions, a healthy monsoon, and strengthening urban consumer demand—these positives appear to be largely priced into the market.
The ongoing earnings season, which started off on a muted note, will be important to watch. The way results unfold could play a key role in shaping market sentiment and easing some of the valuation worries, especially since India remains one of the most expensive markets in Asia.
With bears continuing to dominate Dalal Street since the start of the July, the Nifty 50 has declined sharply, falling 600 points to close slightly above the 25,000 mark at 25,082 in yesterday’s session. Analysts expect a deeper correction if the index breaks below the crucial 25,000 level.
The index has been trading above 25,000 since June 24. After a gap of seven months, it reclaimed this level in mid-May.
25,000 holds a key support level for Nifty 50
Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst – Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said that Nifty 50 formed a bearish-bodied candle with a lower wick on the daily chart, indicating selling dominance but also highlighting some buying support at lower levels.
Matalia noted that on the downside, the 25,000 level remains a strong support, and he expects that a decisive breach below this could trigger extended selling pressure, dragging the index towards the 24,700 zone.
On the upside, Matalia added that immediate resistance is placed around 25,200, followed by a strong hurdle in the 25,350–25,500 range.
Meanwhile, analysts at Bajaj Broking Research said the index formed a bear candle with a long lower shadow around the psychological 25,000 level. Bajaj Broking noted that the Nifty continues to form lower highs and lower lows, highlighting a corrective decline for the fourth session in a row on Monday.
They added that it’s worth noting the index has taken 11 sessions to retrace just 50% of the previous 11-session up move (from 24,473 to 25,669).
According to Bajaj Broking Research, this shallow pullback suggests the overall trend remains positive. They pointed out that Nifty has strong support between 24,900 and 25,100, which aligns with the 50-day EMA, a past breakout zone, and a rising trendline.
Analysts expect the index to hold this support and bounce back towards 25,500–25,600 in the coming sessions. They view the current decline as a buying opportunity. However, they cautioned that if Nifty breaks below 24,900, it may temporarily halt the short-term upward trend.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
