The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Friday, tracking weak cues from global markets, after US President Donald Trump announced fresh 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical products, furniture, and heavy trucks.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,930 level, a discount of nearly 37 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Thursday, the equity market ended sharply lower for the fifth straight session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index closing below 24,900.
The Sensex declined 555.95 points, or 0.68%, to close at 81,159.68, while the Nifty 50 settled 166.05 points, or 0.66%, lower at 24,890.85.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Nifty OI Data
The derivatives landscape continues to reflect caution, with aggressive call writers overshadowing put writers.
“A sharp build-up of 1.74 crore contracts at the 25,000 strike has established this level as a formidable resistance ceiling. On the other hand, significant Put open interest of 89.99 lakh contracts at the 24,500 strike has reinforced this band as immediate support. The steady addition of call positions at near-the-money strikes underscores the prevailing bearish tone, hinting that upside will remain restricted,” said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) slipped to 0.58 from 0.78, signalling bearish bias. However, with the ratio moving closer to oversold territory, intermittent short-covering bouts cannot be ruled out, he added.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index has formed a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low on the daily chart, indicating continuation of the decline.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart with upper shadow. Technically, this market action indicates strong downside momentum. Nifty 50 is now placed at the edge of moving below the cluster support of around 24,900 levels (ascending trend line and 10week EMA). This is not a good sign,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 continues to be weak, and a sharp move below 24,900 could possibly open further weakness down to 24,700 – 24,600 levels in the near term. Any sustainable bounce above 25,100 is likely to confirm near term bottom reversal in the market.
Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking Ltd. noted that the Nifty 50 breached the crucial support level of 25,000, which is now expected to act as immediate resistance, and momentum indicators, particularly the MACD, have signaled a fresh sell crossover on the daily chart.
“With the monthly F&O expiry approaching next week, a short-covering rally is possible if Nifty 50 manages to reclaim the 25,000 mark. On the downside, the immediate support is at the 50-day moving average 24,876, and a break below this level could lead the index further down towards the 24,600 zone,” said Jain.
Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities said that the upward slope of the 100-day and 200-day EMAs — typically considered medium to long-term trend indicators — has flattened considerably, suggesting a potential loss of bullish momentum in the broader trend.
Adding to the cautious outlook, the RSI on the daily chart has dropped below the 50 mark and continues to trend downward. This reflects weakening price momentum and growing bearish sentiment among market participants.
“Going ahead, the 100-day EMA zone of 24,770 – 24,740 will act as crucial support for the Nifty 50 index. If the index slips below the level of 24,740, it will lead to further correction upto the 24,600 level. While, on the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 25,000 – 25,040 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index,” Shah said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty ended 145.30 points, or 0.26%, lower at 54,976.20 on Thursday, forming a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low on the daily chart, indicating extension of the corrective decline.
“Bank Nifty index is now hovering close to the 38.2% retracement at 54,950, and slipping below this zone could open the way for a further decline towards 54,700, followed by 54,500. On the higher side, 55,300 has turned into immediate resistance, and a close above this zone would be required to indicate a potential reversal,” said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
The RSI has eased to 49 from its recent high above 57, while the MACD remains in positive territory. Nifty Bank continues to trade below the 9, 50, and 100 EMAs, while still holding above the 20 EMA. This alignment reflects a mixed setup, with short-term pressure persisting but medium-term support still intact, he added.
“The short-term trend remains slightly weaker and may require some more time to complete its correction. A close above 55,300 will be important to revive upward momentum,” Mehra said.
Bajaj Broking Research said that the immediate support for Bank Nifty is seen at 54,700 – 54,900, which aligns with last week’s low and the 20-day EMA. A more significant support level is placed near 54,000, representing a key retracement level of the recent rally.
“Our broader view remains positive, and we believe the current consolidation phase offers a buying opportunity within the ongoing uptrend. On the upside, the Bank Nifty index faces initial resistance near the 56,000 mark. A decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for a fresh uptrend, potentially targeting the 57,000 level in the coming weeks,” said Bajaj Broking Research.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
