The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a tepid note Wednesday ahead of the RBI policy announcement and mixed cues from global markets.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a muted start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,775 level, a discount of nearly 3 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce its monetary policy later today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged and maintain the policy stance.
On Tuesday, the equity market ended lower for the eighth consecutive session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing tad above 24,600 level.
The Sensex declined 97.32 points, or 0.12%, to close at 80,267.62, while the Nifty 50 settled 23.80 points, or 0.10%, lower at 24,611.10.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Nifty OI Data
In the derivatives segment, Nifty open interest (OI) data showed the highest call writing at the 24,700 and 24,800 strikes, while the maximum put OI was concentrated at 24,600.
“This positioning highlights strong resistance around the 24,700 mark. Overall, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, but a decisive close above 24,700 will be crucial to revive bullish momentum in the near term,” said Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a small negative candle on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadow, indicating weakness.
“Technically, this market action indicates a choppy movement in the market or a falling wedge type formation. The downside momentum has been reduced in the last couple of sessions and Nifty 50 placed above the key cluster support of 24,500 – 24,400 levels (ascending trend line, previous swing lows and 200day EMA),” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 remains weak with choppy movement, and further decline from here could drag Nifty 50 down to the support of 24,500 – 24,400 levels.
“A sustainable move above 24,750 – 24,800 levels could open short term bounceback in the market,” Shetti said.
Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking Ltd. noted that the Nifty 50 maintained a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
“Despite defending the 24,600 level for the third straight session, it remains firmly below all key moving averages. Additionally, momentum indicators and oscillators have confirmed a bearish crossover on the daily chart. Unless Nifty 50 reclaims 24,800, the overall structure remains weak, and a decisive break below 24,600 could open the door for a further decline towards the 24,400 mark,” said Jain.
Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities believes that the zone of 24,500 – 24,450 will act as crucial support for the Nifty 50 index as an upward-sloping trendline is placed in that region. While, on the upside, the zone of 24,800 – 24,850 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index gained 174.85 points, or 0.32%, to close at 54,635.85 on Tuesday, and is just below its 21- and 50-day EMAs.
“Bank Nifty index has defended the low of the Doji candle placed at 54,225 and crossed its high, reflecting strength. A decisive move above 54,700 could propel the index towards the immediate resistance at 54,890, where the 100-DEMA is placed. A sustained breakout above 54,890 may further extend the up move towards 55,000 – 55,200 levels,” said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd.
Bajaj Broking Research noted that the Bank Nifty index is trading just below its 21- and 50-day EMAs, pointing to weak short-term momentum and a downward bias unless these levels are convincingly crossed.
“Key supports are placed at 54,080 and 53,800, the latter coinciding with the 200-day EMA, making this a crucial zone for buyers to defend. A rebound from here could trigger a short-lived recovery. On the higher side, resistance levels stand at 54,850 and 55,000. Unless the Bank Nifty index manages a sustained close above 55,000, selling pressure is likely to reappear. A breakout above this mark would be the first signal of a near-term trend reversal in Favour of the bulls,” said Bajaj Broking Research.
Overall, it believes that Bank Nifty remains in a corrective phase, with previous swing lows still intact, and the near-term direction depends on how the index reacts at key support and resistance zones.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
