The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower amid escalating tensions between India and Pakistan.
The trends on Gift Nifty indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,974 level, a discount of nearly 298 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
Certain military stations in India were targeted by Pakistani drones and missiles along the International Border in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). However, the threats were swiftly neutralised, while reports said that Indian Army Air Defence Units shot down two Pakistani drones in Naushera sector of J&K.
On Thursday, the domestic equity market ended lower, dragged by fag-end selling, on rising tensions between India and Pakistan.
The Sensex tanked 411.97 points, or 0.51%, to close at 80,334.81, while the Nifty 50 settled 140.60 points, or 0.58%, lower at 24,273.80.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex declined by 412 points on Thursday, forming a bearish candle on daily charts, and holding a lower top formation on intraday charts, which supports temporary weakness.
“We are of the view that, as long as Sensex is trading below 80,900, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, it could retest the levels of 80,000 – 79,700. On the flip side, above 80,900, the sentiment could change. Above this level, Sensex could move up to 81,200 – 81,400. The current market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for short term traders,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head-Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 made a sharp reversal on the downside on May 8 on the backdrop of rising geopolitical tension between India and Pakistan and closed the day lower by 140 points.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart beside the long bull candle of Wednesday. This market action signals sharp reversal in the market on the downside. Nifty 50 has placed at the edge of a decisive downside breakout of immediate support of 10-day EMA at 24,250 levels,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 is weak with high volatility and the rising geopolitical tension is weighing high on the market and leading to nervousness.
“Further fall below 24,200 could open the next lower support of 23,850 levels. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,450 levels,” Shetti said.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, noted that the Nifty 50 index is currently hovering near its 9 EMA support, and a move below this level could further weaken the short-term trend.
“However, the index holds above the 20 and 50 day EMAs, which keeps the broader trend intact. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains steady above 60, suggesting a neutral undertone. On the hourly chart, immediate support is seen at 24,050, followed by a stronger cushion at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 23,900. On the upside, resistance is placed at 24,450,” said Mehra.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. highlighted that the Nifty 50 formed a red candle on the daily chart, reflecting weakness.
“Nifty 50 index continues to struggle near the crucial resistance zone of 24,590. As long as the index remains below this level, short-term upside appears capped. However, a sustained move above 24,590 could trigger an extended rally towards the 24,800 – 24,850 levels. On the downside, key support is seen around the 200-Day Simple Moving Average, placed near 24,050,” Yedve said.
According to VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, Nifty 50 formed a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern on the daily chart during the last session, suggesting a sell-on-rise outlook driven by macro factors and price action.
“Nifty 50 can find support near 24,200 and 24,050 and face resistance near 24,450 and 24,520. Similarly, Bank Nifty can find support near 54,300 and 54,000 and expect resistance near 55,100 and 55,350 in today’s market session,” Ambala said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index declined 245.25 points, or 0.45%, to close at 54,365.65 on Thursday, forming a bearish candle on the daily chart.
“Bank Nifty index found resistance around the 55,000 level and witnessed heavy profit booking, eventually closing on a negative note at 54,366. Technically, the Bank Nifty index on a daily chart formed a big red candle, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. Immediate resistance is placed at 55,000, followed by 56,000, while key support lies at 53,890,” said Hrishikesh Yedve.
Om Mehra highlighted that the Bank Nifty index formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, while the hourly chart indicates a lower low and lower high formation. The sharp decline in the dying hours has weakened the short-term trend.
“The daily RSI has turned slightly skewed to the downside, though it continues to hover below the 60 mark, suggesting a pause in momentum without a complete breakdown. Nifty Bank has slipped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, placed at 54,500. The next key support lies near the 38.2% retracement level, around 53,500. On the upside, resistance is expected near 54,800,” Mehra said.
Bank Nifty appears poised for a healthy consolidation, which could help establish a solid support base before its next leg on the higher side, he added.
Bajaj Broking Research said that the Bank Nifty index formed a bear candle highlighting profit booking at higher levels.
“Bank Nifty index has already taken 10 sessions to retrace just 38.2% of the preceding 6 sessions’ rally signaling a shallow retracement of the previous up move. On the downside, key support is seen between 53,000 – 53,500 levels being the previous major breakout area and previous gap up area,” said the brokerage firm.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
