The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Monday, extending its losses from the previous week, as the prolonged US-Iran war in the Middle East and the rise in crude oil prices continue to dent investors’ risk appetite.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,551 level, a discount of nearly 266 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the Indian stock market suffered strong losses, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 23,000 level.
The Sensex crashed 1690.23 points, or 2.25%, to close at 73,583.22, while the Nifty 50 settled 486.85 points, or 2.09%, lower at 22,819.60.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex is expected to find immediate support in the 73,000 – 73,100 range, which may act as a key demand zone. On the upside, resistance is placed around the 74,000 – 74,100 levels. A sustained move above this resistance zone would be necessary to trigger any meaningful positive momentum in the upcoming sessions, said Aakash Shah, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low, signaling resumption of downtrend after two sessions of pullback.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart which indicates sharp reversal down in the Nifty 50 after a pullback. This market action signals a formation of a new lower top reversal pattern at 23,465 on the daily timeframe chart. This is in line with the ongoing bearish pattern like lower tops and bottoms of the last one month,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 has turned down sharply after a recent pullback rally.
“One may expect further weakness down to 22,450 levels and lower in the coming week. Positional support is placed at 22,000. Immediate resistance is placed at 23,200,” said Shetti.
Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities said that the immediate support for Nifty 50 is placed in the 22,650 – 22,600 zone.
“Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Nifty 50 extending its weakness towards 22,400, followed by 22,200 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 23,150 – 23,200 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance,” said Shah.
Bajaj Broking Research expects the Nifty 50 index to consolidate in the range of 22,450 – 23,850 in the coming weeks amid high volatility on account of the rising crude oil prices and escalating geo-political tension.
“On the downside a breach below previous week low of 22,471 may trigger further downside towards 22,100 and 21,800 levels. For a meaningful pause in the ongoing downtrend, the Nifty 50 index needs to form higher high and higher low on a sustained basis in the daily chart and close above the recent high of 23,862,” said the brokerage firm.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 1,433.50 points, or 2.67%, lower at 52,274.60 on Friday, forming a strong bearish candle on the daily chart following the recent pullback attempt.
“Bank Nifty index has breached its previous swing low and ended well below the previous week’s low, signaling a major bearish shift in momentum as it struggles to hold the 100-day SMA. For the coming week, the 51,800 – 51,500 zone stands as the final make-or-break defense; a breakdown here could trigger a deeper correction toward the 51,000 psychological level,” said Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd.
On the upside, he believes 53,000 and 53,700 now act as stiff hurdles.
“Strategy remains ‘sell on recovery’ until the Bank Nifty index decisively reclaims 54,100. Expect continued pressure on private banking heavyweights as the sector searches for stability,” said Singh.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities noted that the Bank Nifty index is currently trading well below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level placed near 53,770, while the 38.2% level at 55,280 remains significantly higher.
“The recent decline from the swing high continues to keep the structure weak, with lower highs and lower lows still visible on the hourly chart. The Bank Nifty index is also placed well below its short-term moving average. The RSI is placed near 33, indicating that the index is recovering slightly from the oversold zone. The MACD remains in negative territory. The immediate hurdle is now placed around 53,700 – 53,800, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement zone,” said Mehra.
Unless the Bank Nifty index reclaims this band on a closing basis, the recovery may remain restricted. On the downside, 51,300 remains an important support zone, and a break below this level may open room for further weakness, he added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
