The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open sharply lower on Monday, tracking weak global market cues, as the US-Iran war entered its fourth week.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,825 level, a discount of nearly 315 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended higher amid short-covering, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 23,100 level.
The Sensex rallied 325.72 points, or, 0.44%, to close at 74,532.96, while the Nifty 50 settled 112.35 points, or 0.49%, higher at 23,114.50.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex is showing signs of consolidation near lower levels, indicating a cautious undertone with scope for range-bound movement.
“The 73,900 – 74,000 band acts as an immediate demand zone for Sensex where dip-buying interest may emerge on any pullback, while the 75,000 – 75,200 range stands as the immediate resistance hurdle, where upside is likely to face supply pressure and profit booking,” said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
With a modest recovery and close above immediate levels, the near-term outlook remains cautiously neutral, and a sustained upside follow-through will be key to improving sentiment, while failure to hold current stability may keep volatility elevated, he added.
Nifty Options Data
From a derivatives perspective, PCR near 0.78 signals a cautious sentiment, with heavy call writing at 23,300 – 23,500 strikes acting as a ceiling, while Put writers shifting toward 23,000 reinforces it as immediate support. India VIX remains elevated above 22, pointing toward continued volatility, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
Overall, until the Nifty 50 index sustains above the 23,400 – 23,600 zone, he believes sell-on-rise remains the preferred strategy, as resistance is likely to attract fresh supply in the near term.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a small-bodied bullish candle with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. For the week, Nifty 50 index fell 0.16%, marking its fourth consecutive week of decline, and formed a gravestone doji on the weekly timeframe, highlighting rejection from higher levels.
“Technically, the Nifty formed a “Doji” candlestick on the weekly chart, indicating the potential for a bullish reversal. Additionally, the RSI on weekly charts has shown positive divergence, reinforcing the possibility of a trend turnaround. However, for confirmation, the Nifty 50 index must hold its recent swing low support at 22,930. On the upside, 23,378 and 23,868 remain critical resistances for the coming sessions,” said Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse Ltd noted that the broader trend remains weak, with the Nifty 50 index continuing to form lower highs and lower lows, although intermittent pullbacks cannot be ruled out.
“Immediate support is placed at 22,900, and a breach below this level could trigger further downside towards 22,600. On the upside, resistance is seen near the gap zone around 23,500. The RSI is hovering near the oversold zone at 32, suggesting the possibility of a near-term pullback,” said Jain.
According Sudeep Shah – Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the immediate support for Nifty 50 is placed in the 22,850 – 22,800 zone, and any sustainable move below this zone could result in the index extending its weakness towards 22,600, followed by 22,400 in the short term.
On the upside, the zone of 23,300 – 23,350 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance, he added.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 23.95 points, or 0.04%, lower at 53,427.05 on Friday, forming a mild bearish candle on the daily chart. For the week, the index declined 0.62% and formed a gravestone doji on the weekly timeframe, indicating rejection from higher levels.
“Bank Nifty index has breached its previous swing low and ended the week below the previous week’s low, signaling a major bearish shift in momentum. For this week, the 53,000 level stands as the make-or-break level; a breakdown here could trigger a deeper correction toward the 52,000 zone,” said Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services Ltd.
On the upside, he added that 54,100 and 55,000 now act as stiff overhead hurdles.
“Strategy remains ‘sell on rise’ until the Bank Nifty index decisively reclaims 55,000. Selling pressure is expected to continue as breakdown is visible in heavyweights,” said Singh.
Bajaj Broking Research highlighted that the Bank Nifty index formed a high-wave candle with a lower high and lower low on the weekly chart, signaling continuation of the corrective decline. It expects volatility to remain elevated in the near term, driven by uncertain global cues and rising geopolitical tensions, which continue to weigh on market sentiment.
“A sustained move below Thursday’s low of 53,240 could trigger further downside, with potential targets at 52,500 and 51,800 in the coming sessions. These levels correspond to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the January 2025 lows and coincide with the low of the breakout candle formed in April 2025,” said Bajaj Broking Research.
On the upside, the Thursday gap zone between 54,689 and 54,150 is expected to act as immediate resistance. The overall bias remains bearish as long as the Bank Nifty index stays below this zone, the brokerage firm added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
