The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open sharply lower on Thursday, tracking weakness in global markets amid concerns over rising crude oil prices.
Trends in Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmarks. Gift Nifty was trading around the 23,240 level, at a discount of nearly 536 points to the previous close of Nifty futures.
The escalating US-Iran conflict and attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. Investor sentiment was further dampened after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and warned that surging energy prices could stoke inflation.
On Wednesday, the Indian stock market ended higher, extending its rally for a third consecutive session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above the 23,700 mark.
The Sensex surged 633.29 points, or 0.83%, to close at 76,704.13, while the Nifty 50 settled 196.65 points, or 0.83%, higher at 23,777.80.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex prediction
The Sensex formed an uptrend continuation pattern on intraday charts and a bullish candle on the daily chart, indicating potential for further upside.
“We believe the Sensex has completed one leg of the pullback rally, and some profit booking may be seen at higher levels. For day traders, buying on intraday dips and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy. On the downside, 76,000 and 75,700 are immediate support zones, while 77,000–77,300 could act as key resistance levels,” said Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities.
However, he added that a break below 75,700 could weaken sentiment, prompting traders to exit long positions.
Nifty options data
In the derivatives segment, significant call writing was seen at the 23,800 strike, followed by 23,900, while notable put writing was observed at the 23,700 and 23,600 strikes.
“Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions, traders are advised to remain cautious near key support and resistance levels and wait for a clear breakout before initiating fresh directional trades,” said Aakash Shah, technical research analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
The Nifty 50 formed a long bullish candle on the daily chart with a minor upper shadow.
“Technically, the upside bounce over the last three sessions confirms a short-term bottom reversal pattern at the recent swing low of 22,955. This is a positive sign. After forming lower tops and bottoms over the past month, the index is now witnessing a sharp recovery, indicating the possibility of a higher bottom during any short-term consolidation,” said Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities.
He added that a sustained upmove could take the index towards 24,000–24,200 in the near term, while immediate support is placed at 23,550.
Vishnu Kant Upadhyay, AVP (research advisory) at Master Capital Services, noted that the 23,850–24,000 zone remains a strong resistance band and has historically acted as both support and resistance.
“Heavy call writing around these levels is capping the upside. If Nifty 50 decisively surpasses 23,850, it could move towards 24,000, followed by 24,200–24,300, where the 21-day EMA is positioned,” he said.
According to Mayank Jain, market analyst at Share.Market, the Nifty 50 has shown a strong ‘piercing line’ reversal from Monday’s lows and is now trading above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
“Immediate support lies in the 23,500–23,600 zone, which has turned into a support floor after acting as resistance earlier. A break below 23,400 would weaken the recovery. Immediate resistance is seen at 23,850–24,000. Reclaiming the 24,000 psychological mark remains crucial for bulls, while a move above 24,250 could trigger a short-covering rally,” Jain said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
The Bank Nifty index rose 450.05 points, or 0.82%, to close at 55,326.05 on Wednesday, forming a bullish candle with a higher high and a higher low, signalling continuation of the pullback.
“For Bank Nifty, immediate resistance is placed in the 55,600–55,700 zone. A sustained move above this could extend the pullback towards 56,000, followed by 56,300 in the short term. On the downside, the 55,000–54,900 zone is likely to act as strong support,” said Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities.
Om Mehra, technical research analyst at SAMCO Securities, said Bank Nifty is now trading above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 55,240 and is recovering within the Bollinger Band range, though it remains below the mid-band.
“After slipping into oversold territory, the RSI has moved up to around 35, indicating a gradual recovery. On the hourly chart, the index is showing continuity in the short-term trend, with the recovery likely to continue as long as 54,750 holds on a closing basis. A break below this level may revive selling pressure,” Mehra said.
Overall, he noted that the current move reflects a short-term recovery, while the broader trend remains corrective.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
