The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Wednesday, tracking upbeat global market cues.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,720 level, a premium of nearly 45 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Tuesday, the domestic equity market ended sharply lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 24,600 level.
The Sensex declined 636.24 points, or 0.78%, to close at 80,737.51, while the Nifty 50 settled 174.10 points, or 0.70%, lower at 24,542.50.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex slipped below the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 81,300, and formed a long bearish candle on the daily chart, and on intraday charts, a lower top formation is holding, which is largely negative.
“We believe that the intraday market texture is weak, but a fresh sell-off is possible only if the level of 80,500 is breached. Below this, Sensex could decline to 80,100 – 80,000. On the upside, if the index moves above 81,000, a quick pullback rally towards the 20-day SMA or 81,300 could occur. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting Sensex up to 81,500,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a bear candle signaling profit booking at higher levels as the index failed to sustain above 24,800 and gave up its initial gains to close near the low.
“A long negative candle was formed on the daily chart, that has negated the positive impact created by the previous session. The market has been moving within a broader high low range over the last couple of weeks within 24,500 – 25,000 levels and the Nifty is currently placed at the lower range,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
He believes further weakness below from here could open more weakness down to the next support of 24,400 – 24,300 levels, and any upside from here could find resistance around 24,800 levels.
Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in, noted that the Nifty 50 formed an engulfing bearish candle closing near its support of 24,500 levels.
“Nifty 50 index is bouncing every time from the 24,500 level, indicating strong support at the 24,500 level. The index has consolidated between the range of 24,500 and 25,150, until the break of any one of these, the bias continues to be sideways. One can look to buy on the drop near the support and sell on the rally near 25,000 levels. The momentum indicators on a smaller time frame have decayed to the oversold region, hinting a possible bounce from the closing level,” said Dwarakanath.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said that the Nifty 50 index formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily time frame.
“Judging the current market sentiment, 24,430 would be a decisive level to watch today, as it could emerge as a make-or-break point. Meanwhile, for swing traders, the broader market trend remains bullish, and the current momentum is viewed as a pullback. During Tuesday’s session, the Nifty index’s RSI was at 50, and it plunged 3.75% in the absence of any major market triggers. If the index opens above 24,810, a sell-on-the-rise strategy would be best suited, but if Nifty opens around 24,250, a buy-on-dip strategy will be more beneficial,” Ambala said.
Based on these considerations, she expects Nifty 50 to gather support between 24,250 and 24,180 and notice resistance near 24,670 and 24,810 in today’s intraday session.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index hit a fresh all time high of 56,161 in the opening trade on Tuesday, while profit booking at higher levels saw the index giving up its gains and closing lower by 0.5%.
“Bank Nifty index snapped its four sessions up move and formed a bear candle signaling profit booking at higher levels. The index is seen consolidating in the broad range of 56,000 – 53,500 in the last five weeks. The index sustaining above the 56,000 mark will signal acceleration of up move towards the 56,700 zone in the near term. Failure to do so will signal extension of the last five weeks consolidation,” Bajaj Broking Research said in a note.
According to the brokerage firm, the short-term structure remains constructive with immediate support is placed at 55,000 – 55,200 levels, while key short-term support is seen at 54,000 – 53,500, which coincides with the 50-day EMA, key Fibonacci retracement levels, and the lower end of the established five-week consolidation band.
Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities believes that the Bank Nifty index remains structurally bullish, holding firmly above its 10-day EMA, and every minor dip continues to be bought into.
“A sustained breakout above the immediate resistance at the all-time high could unleash strong bullish momentum. Unless the crucial support at 55,000 is breached decisively, sellers are expected to face persistent hurdles. Broadly, the trend remains moderately positive but peppered with intraday volatility. As long as the index respects its key support zones, downside risk appears limited,” said Dhameja.
With the upcoming RBI monetary policy event on the horizon, traders should prepare for potential spikes in volatility and rapid momentum shifts, he added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
