The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open flat on Friday, tracking positive global market cues.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a flattish start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,189 level, a premium of nearly 15 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Thursday, the domestic equity market indices ended lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 25,200 level.
The Sensex dropped 375.24 points, or 0.45%, to close at 82,259.24, while the Nifty 50 settled 100.60 points, or 0.40%, lower at 25,111.45.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a bearish candle on daily charts and a lower top formation on intraday charts, which is largely negative.
“We are of the view that, as long as Sensex is trading below 82,500, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) at 82,000 would be the immediate support level. Below 82,000, the chances of hitting 81,600 – 81,500 would increase,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
On the upside, he believes a break above 82,500 could lead the index to retest the levels of 82,800, and a successful breakout above 82,800 could push Sensex up to 83,000 – 83,300.
Nifty OI Data
On the derivatives front, the highest Call Open Interest (OI) for Nifty 50 is seen at the 25,200 strike, followed by 25,300, indicating potential resistance at higher levels. On the Put side, the highest OI is placed at 25,100, followed by 25,000, suggesting immediate support zones. This OI configuration highlights the 25,000 – 25,300 range as a crucial zone for Nifty’s near-term directional move, said Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst – Research at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 was not able to sustain the upside momentum on July 17 and closed the day lower by 100 points amidst choppy movement, forming a bearish candle on the daily chart.
“A reasonable negative candle pattern was formed on the daily chart that has erased most of the gains made in the last two sessions. The overhead resistance of 25,250 has weighed high on the market and that led to minor reversal from the highs on Thursday. Having displayed a weak bounce back from near the support of 25K mark recently, the chances of Nifty 50 revisiting the said support is high in the short term,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
However, according to him, the upper area of 25,250 is likely to be a strong overhead hurdle and the lower area of 25,000 – 24,900 levels could be a crucial support for the near term.
Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research by SBI Securities, highlighted that Nifty 50 has formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, reinforcing short-term weakness and indicating a lack of strong follow-through buying.
“Technically, the 20-day EMA is gradually trending lower, suggesting a softening of momentum in the near term. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe continues to hover in a sideways trajectory, in line with the RSI range shift rules, highlighting indecision and the absence of directional strength,” said Shah.
Going ahead, he believes the zone of 25,000 – 24,960 will act as immediate support for Nifty 50, and if the index slips below 24,960, then the next crucial support is placed at the 24,800 level. While on the upside, the zone of 25,220 – 25,250 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said Nifty 50 formed a bearish marubozu candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating downward momentum. She expects Nifty 50 to find support between 25,020 and 24,940, and face resistance near 25,200 and 25,290 in today’s intraday session.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index fell 340.15 points, or 0.59%, to close at 56,828.80 on Thursday, forming a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, indicating weakness.
“Bank Nifty has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart and has closed below the 9-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (EMA). However, it continues to hold above the 50-day simple moving average, currently placed at 56,200. The pattern remains broadly within a rising wedge formation. The RSI has dropped to 52, slipping away from the 60 zone, while the MACD remains below the signal line, which highlights a weakening trend,” said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
If the Bank Nifty index decisively breaks below 56,590, the next support levels are seen around 56,200, followed by 55,950. On the upside, a close above 57,300 remains crucial to reassert control and resume the uptrend, he added.
“Until such confirmation emerges, the outlook is likely to stay neutral to cautious, with intraday rebounds facing resistance. A shift from a buy-on-dip to a sell-on-rise approach is now more appropriate in the short term,” Mehra said.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. said that the short-term swing low for Bank Nifty is placed near 56,590.
“If the index sustains below 56,590, a fresh round of weakness could be expected. On the higher side, 57,280 will act as an immediate hurdle for Bank Nifty. Thus, traders are advised to buy near support and sell near resistance,” Yedve said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
