The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher amid volatility on Wednesday, tracking weak global market cues.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,304 level, a premium of nearly 45 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Tuesday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 25,300 level.
The Sensex crashed 1,065.71 points, or 1.28%, to close at 82,180.47, while the Nifty 50 closed 353.00 points, or 1.38%, lower at 25,232.50.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts and a lower top formation on intraday charts, indicating further weakness from the current levels.
“We are of the view that, although the intraday market texture is weak, it is oversold; hence, one quick pullback rally from the lower levels cannot be ruled out. For traders, as long as Sensex is trading below 82,300, a weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the lower side, the index could slip to 82,000 – 81,700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
On the flip side, he believes above 82,300, a pullback move could take Sensex to 82,500 – 82,800.
Nifty OI Data
Nifty derivatives data indicates heavy call writing at the 25,500 strike and significant put writing at the 25,100 strike, establishing this band as a key near-term pivot zone.
“Traders are advised to remain selective and adopt a cautious yet constructive approach near key support levels. Fresh directional positions should be considered only after a decisive breakout above the stated resistance levels,” said Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a strong bearish candle on the daily chart and now appears to be drifting towards its long-term 200-DMA near 25,110 levels.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart which indicates a decisive breakdown of range movement at 25,500 levels. This is not a good sign and indicates more weakness in the coming sessions. Nifty 50 is now placed near the next crucial support of 200day EMA around 25,150 levels. Sustainability above this support could be crucial,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 is sharply down, and a further weakness below the support of 25,100 could possibly open the next lower area of 24,800 in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,500.
Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking Ltd. said that the overall market structure remains weak, with the MACD signaling a sell crossover on both the daily and weekly timeframes.
“Although a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out, the bearish setup will remain intact unless the index decisively moves back above 25,580. On the downside, a break below 25,100 could accelerate the fall towards the 24,800 levels. Further adding to the cautious undertone, India VIX jumped 7% to close at 12.70, indicating heightened market uncertainty,” said Jain.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money noted that the Nifty 50 index is now hovering near its 200-day EMA around 25,163 a critical medium-term support area, and a decisive breach of this zone could open the door for stop-loss-driven selling toward 25,000 and lower.
“RSI has slipped to 28, entering the oversold territory, but the selling pressure remains orderly rather than panic-driven, suggesting controlled distribution rather than capitulation. Momentum remains muted with no visible bullish reversal patterns so far, as all counter-rallies continue to be sold into,” said Ponmudi R.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index declined 487.15 points, or 0.81%, to close at 59,404.20 on Tuesday, forming a bearish candlestick on the daily chart, indicating rising selling pressure.
“Bank Nifty index slipped below its 20 day EMA, signalling a loss of short-term momentum after showing resilience in the previous sessions. The price action has turned subdued, and key momentum indicators, along with oscillators, are now pointing towards a sideways to mildly corrective phase, suggesting lack of clear directional conviction,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Looking ahead, he believes the immediate support for the Bank Nifty index is placed in the 59,000 – 58,900 zone, and a breach below this band could trigger further downside volatility and expose the index to deeper corrective moves.
“On the upside, the index faces a stiff resistance cluster at 59,900 – 60,000, which is expected to act as a crucial hurdle,” said Shah.
Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said that the momentum indicators signal caution, as RSI is downward sloping, forming a lower top with a bearish crossover, suggesting a shift in sentiment.
“Immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed at 59,000, while resistance stands at 59,800. A bullish view should be considered only on a sustained close above 60,000; until then, a cautious approach is advised,” said Bhuva.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
