The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Friday, tracking weakness in global markets, weighed down by sustained selling in US tech stocks.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,609 level, a discount of nearly 115 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its February monetary policy later today, its last policy for FY26. The RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra-led MPC is expected to keep repo rates unchanged at 5.25%.
On Thursday, the Indian stock market declined, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 25,700 level.
The Sensex dropped 503.76 points, or 0.60%, to close at 83,313.93, while the Nifty 50 settled 133.20 points, or 0.52%, lower at 25,642.80.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, indicating further weakness from the current levels.
“We are of the view that the intraday market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 83,200 is dismissed below. Sensex could then slip till 83,000 – 82,500. On the flip side, 83,800 would act as an immediate resistance zone. Above this, the index could move up to 84,000 – 84,200,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Nifty OI Data
Nifty derivatives data shows heavy put writing at the 25,500 strike and significant call writing at the 25,700 strike, clearly defining a narrow near-term trading range.
“Despite the marginally negative close, the Nifty 50 index remains range-bound. This structure supports a cautiously positive near-term outlook, with a strategy of buying on dips as long as the key support zone holds,” said Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a reasonable negative candle on the daily chart with minor lower shadow.
“Technically, the market action of the last couple of sessions signals a broad ranger movement within 25,600 to 25,800 levels. The huge opening upside gap of Tuesday is partially filled after three sessions of its formation,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
He believes if the said gap remains partially filled for the next couple of sessions, then that could be considered as a bullish runaway gap, which is normally formed in the middle of uptrend. Hence, a sustainable move above 25,800 is likely to open more upside in the near term.
Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd maintains a positive stance on the Nifty 50 and recommends continuing a buy-on-dips approach as long as the index holds above the 25,400 level, with upside potential toward 26,000 initially and then a move toward fresh record highs.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 174.50 points, or 0.29%, lower at 60,063.65 on Thursday, forming a small body candle with minor lower shadow on the daily chart.
“Looking ahead, the 59,600 – 59,500 zone will act as a key support area for the Bank Nifty index. On the upside, the region between 60,300 – 60,400 remains the immediate resistance, and a breakout above this band may revive upward momentum,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities noted that the Bank Nifty index holds above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 50-day average placed near 59,450, offering a strong base. However, it remains capped below the upper Bollinger Band and the falling trendline, which is acting as an immediate hurdle.
“Nifty Bank is moving sideways following the sharp recovery from recent lows. The RSI is placed near 56, holding above the neutral zone. The MACD continues to improve and remains in positive territory. On the downside, 59,800 remains the immediate support, followed by 59,600, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. On the upside, 60,300 – 60,350 remains the immediate resistance band, followed by 60,500,” said Mehra.
According to him, the Bank Nifty index remains positioned close to its record zone but is currently in a pause phase after the recent sharp move.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
