The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Monday, tracking mixed cues from global markets.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,448 level, a discount of nearly 71 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 25,500 level.
The Sensex cracked 1048.16 points, or 1.25%, to end at 82,626.76, while the Nifty 50 settled 336.10 points, or 1.30%, lower at 25,471.10.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a reversal pattern near the 84,500 level, and it also formed a bearish candle on the weekly chart, which is largely negative.
“We believe that the intraday market texture is still on the weak side, but a fresh selloff is possible only if Sensex dismisses the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 82,500. Below this level, the index could extend the correction to 82,200. Further downside may continue, potentially dragging Sensex to 81,700 – 81,500,” said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
On the upside, he believes 83,100 would act as an immediate resistance for the bulls, and above this, a pullback could continue towards the 50-day SMA, around 83,700 – 84,000.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market said that the immediate support for the Sensex is now at the 82,400 – 82,500 zone, and if the index fails to hold this, it may test the 82,000 level. “On the upside, reclaiming and sustaining above the 83,000 – 83,200 resistance zone is essential for any sentiment reversal.”
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a large bearish candle and slipped below its 50-day DEMA. For the week, the index fell 0.87% and formed a bearish candle on the weekly chart which remained contained inside previous week price range signaling consolidation amid stock specific action.
“A long negative candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper shadow. Technically, this market action indicates reversal in the market on downside. The negative pattern like ‘Bearish Island Reversal’ was formed on the daily chart and the initial downside target was met at 25,500 on Friday,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the emergence of selling pressure on Friday seems to have dampened the effort of bulls to make a comeback, and the short-term negative chart pattern suggests more weaknesses in the coming sessions.
“A decisive slide below 25,450 levels could pull Nifty 50 down to 25,200 levels (200day EMA) by this week. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,600,” said Shetti.
Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse noted that the crucial support for Nifty 50 at the 200-DMA, placed near 25,300, is likely to be tested in the near term.
“Meanwhile, India VIX surged sharply by 13% to around 13, and any further rise in volatility could be a cause for concern. Overall, the market structure appears sideways-to-weak, and pullback rallies are expected to face selling pressure as long as the Nifty 50 remains below the 25,800 mark,” said Jain.
Mayank Jain of Share.Market said that the immediate support for Nifty 50 is now placed in the 25,200 – 25,250 zone, and a decisive break below this level could open the doors for a further slide toward the 25,000 structural support.
“Conversely, immediate resistance is visible at 25,550 – 25,600. Additionally, heavy Call writing at the 25,600 strike increases its significance as a formidable resistance level for any recovery attempts,” said Jain.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 553.10 points, or 0.91%, lower at 60,186.65 on Friday. For the week, the index rose 0.11% and formed a small bearish candle on the weekly chart which remained contained inside previous week price range signaling consolidation with corrective bias.
“Bank Nifty traded within a 431-point range over the last four sessions and has now broken below the lower end of the consolidation zone. The breakdown was accompanied by a bearish daily candle. RSI, which had plateaued near 60, has started turning down, suggesting bulls are losing grip around the key support area,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
For Bank Nifty, he added that the immediate support is placed in the 20-day EMA zone of 60,000 – 59,900, and any sustained move below this zone could lead to the index extending its weakness on the downside towards 59,500, followed by 59,000 in the short term.
“On the upside, the zone of 60,500 – 60,600 zone is likely to act as an immediate support,” said Shah.
Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd. highlighted that the Bank Nifty index continues to hover near its all-time highs and remains comfortably above its 21-day and 55-day EMAs, indicating a positive underlying trend.
“The crucial support is placed at 59,900, aligning with the 21-day EMA, and a decisive break below this level could drag the index toward 59,400. On the upside, 60,500 is a key resistance, and only a sustained breakout above this zone may trigger a fresh upmove toward 61,000. Traders may adopt a cautious buy-on-dips approach,” said Singh.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
