The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Tuesday, following weakness in global markets ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,956 level, a discount of nearly 108 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Monday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower amid selling across the board, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 26,000.
The Sensex crashed 609.68 points, or 0.71%, to close at 85,102.69, while the Nifty 50 settled 225.90 points, or 0.86%, lower at 25,960.55.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a long bearish candle on daily charts and also closed below the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average), which is largely negative.
“We believe that as long as Sensex is trading below the 20-day SMA or 85,400, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, it could slip till 84,800. Further downside may also continue, potentially dragging the index to 84,500. On the flip side, above 85,400, we could see one pullback rally up to 85,700 – 85,800,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market said that resistance for Sensex is positioned at 85,500 – 85,600, a zone that coincides with heavy call Open Interest (OI), and a breakout above this band could push the index toward highs, while support remains firm near 84,600 – 84,500.
Nifty OI Data
Nifty options activity reflects clear caution among traders. Heavy Call OI remains concentrated at the 26,200 – 26,300 strikes, confirming strong overhead supply, while Put OI has cooled off below 26,000, indicating weakening downside defence in the near term.
“On a cumulative basis, Call writers are carrying more than ₹28 crore of open interest, while Put writers stand at only ₹13.6 crore. Notably, yesterday alone saw over ₹13.4 crore of fresh Call writing, clearly pointing to today fresh short positions being built at higher levels. The OI structure now signals a range-to-weak bias unless 26,200 is reclaimed with strength,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a big bearish candle on the daily chart, reflecting strong selling pressure.
“Nifty 50 slipped below the short-term 21-DMA around 26,000, which now becomes the immediate resistance zone. A sell signal on the MACD and a bearish divergence on the RSI further reinforce the cautious tone. Overall, the setup points to a consolidation phase, with the index likely to oscillate within the broader 25,800 – 26,200 range in the near term,” said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd noted that the Nifty 50 index managed to hold the 25,890 level, which is the low of the weekly Hanging Man candlestick pattern.
“A firm break below 25,890 could lead to fresh selling pressure in Nifty 50. On the downside, 25,500 – 25,300 will act as the next major support zone for the index, while on the upside, 26,200 and 26,325 will act as strong hurdles for the index. Any bounce towards 26,325 could be used for profit booking,” said Yedve.
According to Mayank Jain, the 26,200 – 26,150 zone now emerges as a significant resistance area for Nifty 50, and a close above this range could pave the way for an upward move toward 26,300. On the downside, he believes support is expected around 25,900 – 25,850, with a strong 25,900 PE strike having highest open interest reinforcing this level.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index closed 538.65 points, or 0.90%, lower at 59,238.55 on Monday, forming a bearish candle on the daily chart, followed by a weekly Hanging Man candle, indicating weakness.
“The zone of 59,000 – 58,900 zone, which coincides with the previous swing low, is likely to act as an important support zone for the Bank Nifty index. Any sustained move below 58,900 could lead to the index breaking its 20-day EMA and moving down, potentially taking it lower towards 58,700 followed by 58,500,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
On the upside, he believes that the zone of 59,400 – 59,500 is likely to act as a strong resistance for the index
Ponmudi R highlighted that the repeated rejection near the 20-EMA and the inability to hold above 59,400 reinforce a short-term bearish outlook.
“Key supports now lie at 59,000 and 58,650, with major resistances placed at 59,800 and 60,000. The bias remains cautious for the next session,” said Ponmudi R.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
