Trade Set-up for December 19: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Friday, December 19 after 4 sessions of losses following positive trends in the global markets. Asian Markets rose following gains in US peers after cooling US inflation data backed the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and calming tech jitters supported US stocks.
The trends on Gift Nifty indicate a positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading near 25,933 level, up 60 points or 0.236% from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The Indian stock market benchmarks — the Sensex and the Nifty 50 — extended its losing streak for the fourth session, ending largely flat with a mild negative bias on Thursday, December 18, as the absence of fresh catalysts kept investor sentiment subdued. The Sensex slipped 78 points, or 0.09%, to close at 84,481.81, while the Nifty 50 eased 3 points, or 0.01%, to finish at 25,815.55.
Market breadth remained mixed, with the BSE Midcap index inching up 0.05%, even as the Smallcap index declined 0.28%. Analysts noted that the domestic market continues to struggle for direction, with no new positive triggers to spark a trend reversal. Ongoing concerns over the weakening rupee, sustained foreign fund outflows and uncertainty surrounding the India–US trade deal negotiations kept investors cautious throughout the session.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Benchmark Sensex traded without clear direction on Thursday as traders waited for a decisive move in either direction. Reflecting the steady but cautious tone of the market, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said the index is currently stuck in a tight range with no strong intraday cues.
“We believe that the intraday market texture is non-directional; perhaps traders are waiting for a breakout on either side,” Chouhan noted. He added that 8,4800 remains the immediate hurdle for the bulls. “If it manages to trade above this level, then it could move up to 85,000–85,300.” On the downside, Chouhan highlighted 84,300 and 84,100 as critical support areas. “Below 84,100, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. If the market falls below this level, the chances of hitting 83,800–83,700 would increase,” he warned.
Nifty OI Data
Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking said, “Volatility remained subdued, with India VIX declining by 1.32 percent to 9.70, reflecting complacency and expectations of continued range-bound trading in the near term. Derivatives data shows aggressive call writing at the 25,900 strike, while strong put open interest at 25,700 reinforces the view of a well-defined trading range. A sustained close above 25,900 will be essential to revive bullish momentum, while failure to reclaim this level may prolong the ongoing consolidation in the sessions ahead.”
Nifty 50 Prediction
As markets enter a potentially decisive phase, analysts warn that the Nifty could witness a sharp move soon. With the index slipping below key moving averages and repeatedly testing crucial support levels, the next few sessions may determine whether a rebound emerges or a deeper correction unfolds.
Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical and Derivative Research at Angel One, said, “Technically, the chart structure indicates that an outburst could occur soon, as the 20-day and 50-day EMAs are converging. The pivotal support is around the 25,750–25,700 zone, and a breakdown below this could disrupt the outlook and aggravate fresh shorts. On the other hand, the 20-DEMA at 25,930, followed by 26,000, represents a sturdy hurdle.” He added that traders should adopt a selective approach and focus on thematic movers while avoiding aggressive bets.
Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research, Centrum Broking, said, “The markets stayed under pressure for the fourth straight session, closing marginally below its 50-day moving average at 25,820, which is likely to act as immediate resistance, followed by 26,000. Given the recent correction and the Nifty testing key support near 25,700, there is a possibility of a pullback if it sustains above the 21-day moving average at 26,000.”
Echoing a similar sentiment, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said the index’s failure to reclaim the hourly 200-DMA and the formation of lower tops keeps the trend bearish. The RSI is also weakening, and the 25,700 level remains vulnerable to a breakdown. A decisive breach could trigger the next leg of correction, while resistance stands around 25,900.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty struggled for direction on Thursday as the index remained trapped in a tight consolidation range, with technical indicators pointing to persistent caution in the near term.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP – Technical and Derivative Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd., said the day’s pattern signals potential volatility ahead. “Bank Nifty formed an inverted hammer candle on the daily chart. If the index holds the inverted hammer low of 58,712, short-term relief may emerge, but a firm break below 58,712 could extend weakness toward the 58,450–58,000 levels,” he noted.
Meanwhie, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the index continues to show signs of fatigue. “Bank Nifty remains in a consolidation phase and is repeatedly facing selling pressure near its 10-day SMA. A close below the 58,700 support could accelerate the correction toward 58,350, where the 50-day SMA lies,” he said, adding that immediate resistance stands near 59,150.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
