The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Wednesday, tracking strong global market cues, amid hopes of an end to the prolonged US-Iran war.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-up start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,779 level, a premium of nearly 353 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The Indian stock market was closed for a holiday on Tuesday, March 31, due to Mahavir Jayanti.
On Monday, the Indian stock market suffered strong losses, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 22,400 level.
The Sensex crashed 1,635.67 points, or 2.22%, to close at 71,947.55, while the Nifty 50 settled 488.20 points, or 2.14%, lower at 22,331.40.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex broke a key support line at 72,500 on Monday and closed at 71,947.
“Based on the current market structure, 72,500 could pose a significant hurdle for Sensex in the short term. Below these levels, the index could soon decline to 71,300 – 71,000. A close below 71,000 would raise further concerns. However, given the current pattern of sudden price declines in a short period of time, medium- to long-term investors may be tempted to invest in certain stocks,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Above 72,500, we may see some short covering, which could take Sensex towards 73,100 levels. The strategy should be to buy certain stocks between 71,300 – 71,000, he added.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, notable call writing activity was seen at the 22,500 strike, with additional buildup at the 22,600 strike. On the put side, strong writing interest was observed at the 22,300 and 22,200 strikes, indicating these levels may serve as near-term support, said Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst – Research at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a second consecutive strong bearish candle, marking a lower high and a lower low, which signals continuation of the ongoing downtrend.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart, which is indicating a sharp reversal on the downside after a recent pullback rally of last week. This is not a good sign. The bearish chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms is intact on the daily chart and present weakness could be in line with the new lower bottom formation. But, there is no confirmation of any lower bottom reversal yet at the lows,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 continues to be weak, and having declined below the immediate support of 22,500, Nifty 50 could now slide down to the next support of 22,000 – 21,900 levels in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 22,500.
Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse Ltd. noted that the overall structure remains weak, with immediate support placed at 22,000, followed by 21,700, while resistance is seen around the 22,700 level.
“Meanwhile, India VIX surged by nearly 4%, approaching the 28 level and hitting a ten-month high. This spike in volatility remains a key concern and needs to cool off for bullish momentum to return. Momentum indicators and oscillators on both the daily and weekly charts continue to signal a sell, indicating a prevailing bearish undertone. However, given the recent sharp correction, the possibility of a strong pullback cannot be ruled out,” said Jain.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 1,999.25 points, or 3.82%, lower at 50,275.35 on Monday. The index has registered a steep monthly decline of 16.94%, marking the sharpest fall since the COVID-led correction.
“For Bank Nifty, the immediate support is placed in the 49,900 – 49,800 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 49,500, followed by 49,200 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 50,600 – 50,700 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the Bank Nifty continues to trend lower with a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, and the recent decline accelerated after the bearish crossover, with the 50-day SMA falling below the 200-day SMA. The index has also broken below the rising weekly trendline.
“The support remains near the previous swing low around 49,156. On the upside, 52,000 now becomes a critical level to watch. Unless the Bank Nifty index reclaims this level on a closing basis, any short-term bounce is likely to remain limited. While the index appears stretched and may attempt a mean reversion, the overall setup continues to favour a sell-on-rise approach,” said Mehra.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
