The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see a tepid opening on Tuesday, tracking mixed global market cues.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a mildly negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,137 level, a discount of nearly 38 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Monday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 23,200 level.
The Sensex cracked 719.08 points, or 0.97%, to close at 73,524.26, while the Nifty 50 settled 243.70 points, or 1.04%, lower at 23,123.00.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex is holding a lower top formation on daily and intraday charts, which supports further weakness from the current levels.
“We are of the view that, as long as Sensex is trading below 73,800, weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, 73,000 would be the immediate support zone. Further downside may also continue, which could drag the index to 72,500. On the flip side, above 73,800, the pullback move could extend to 74,000 – 74,300,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
He believes the intraday market texture is volatile and non-directional, and hence advises level-based trading strategy for day traders.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, significant call writing was observed at the 23,300 and 23,400 strikes, while put writing was concentrated at the 23,100 and 23,000 levels, indicating a broader trading range with support positioned near lower levels.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed an inverted hammer-like candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating buying support emerging from lower levels despite the overall weak close.
“A small green candle was formed on the daily chart with an upper shadow. Technically, this market action indicates an attempt of breakdown of the important support of previous significant opening up gap of 8 April at 23,150. This is not a good sign,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 is weak and a decisive move below the support of 23,100 could open more weakness down to 22,700 levels in a quick period of time. Immediate resistance is placed at 23,250.
Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse Ltd. noted that the immediate support for Nifty 50 is placed at 23,000, and a decisive breach could trigger further downside towards 22,700.
“On the upside, sustained trading above 23,500 may lead to a short-covering rally. The broader market structure remains weak, with the MACD maintaining a bearish crossover and the RSI trending lower. The index is also trading below its short- and long-term moving averages, indicating a negative bias,” said Jain.
On the volatility front, India VIX surged 8% to close around 17. A sustained move above the 18 mark could further elevate market uncertainty and keep volatility high in the coming sessions, he added.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market by PhonePe said that the support for Nifty 50 lies at 23,000 – 23,100 zone, while resistance is placed at 23,450 – 23,550 levels.
“The key psychological floor sits at the 23,000 mark, where substantial put writing is concentrated. If Nifty 50 breaks and closes below 23,000 on a daily basis, it will invalidate the medium-term structural support, opening the doors to a deeper correction toward the 22,750 level,” said Jain.
On any technical pullback, the short-term market bias will remain firmly “cautious” until the bulls manage to decisively reclaim and hold above the 23,450 – 23,550 supply zone, he added.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 432.50 points, or 0.79%, lower at 54,063.75 on Monday, forming a small-bodied candle with a prominent upper wick on the daily chart, reflecting profit booking and supply emerging at higher levels.
“Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 53,600 – 53,500 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 53,100, followed by 52,700 in the short term. On the upside, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 54,500 – 54,600 zone,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, highlighted that the Bank Nifty index has slipped back below the 20-day SMA, placed near 54,070, erasing the brief close above it seen over the previous two sessions.
“The Bollinger Bands are visibly contracting, a pattern that typically precedes a sharp directional move in the coming sessions. The RSI is placed at 47, reflecting a lack of clear direction, while the MACD remains flat. The immediate resistance is placed at 54,500, followed by 54,900. On the downside, 53,700 and 53,500 remain key support levels,” said Mehra.
According to him, a breach of this zone would confirm a bearish outlook and may open room for a sharper decline. Until a clear breakout from the Bollinger Band contraction occurs, the Bank Nifty index is likely to remain volatile.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
