The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Thursday, tracking mixed cues from global markets, as optimism over the US-Iran ceasefire faded and investors remained cautious on further escalation of the conflict.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,973 level, a discount of nearly 84 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Wednesday, the Indian stock market ended sharply higher led by the US-Iran ceasefire deal announcement, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing near 24,000 level.
The Sensex rallied 2,946.32 points, or 3.95%, to close at 77,562.90, while the Nifty 50 settled 873.70 points, or 3.78%, higher at 23,997.35.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex has shown a strong breakout with sharp upward momentum, indicating a clear shift in near-term trend in favour of bulls.
“Key technical levels suggest that support for Sensex is placed in the 76,800 – 77,000 zone, which is likely to act as a demand area on declines, while resistance is seen around 78,000 – 78,300, where upside may face initial supply pressure,” said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
The near-term outlook remains positive, supported by strong momentum; however, after such a sharp rally, some consolidation or volatility may emerge, especially considering ongoing geopolitical developments, he added.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, notable call writing was observed at the 24,000 and 24,200 strikes, indicating immediate resistance zones. On the put side, strong writing activity at the 24,000 and 23,800 strikes highlights a firm base for the index in the near term.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a bullish Marubozu-like candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating strong buying conviction throughout the session, with minimal selling pressure.
“The formation of the huge unfilled opening upside gap of Wednesday indicates a formation of Bullish Breakaway Gap, which reflects a formation of important bottom reversal for the market at the recent swing low of 22,182 levels-2nd April,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the overall chart pattern is positive and if this gap remains unfilled for the next 3-4 sessions, then that could suggest broad based rally for the markets ahead.
“The next upside levels to be watched are around 24,500. Immediate support is placed at 23,800 levels,” said Shetti.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market noted that the market is currently in a ‘relief rally’ phase, driven by the ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“While sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, the specific terms of the ceasefire remain a key point of discussion. Technically, the Nifty 50 index formed a massive bullish ‘marubozu’ candle, indicating total dominance by the bulls. The India VIX plunged 20% to settle below 20, signaling a massive unwinding of fear,” said Jain.
The intraday consolidation zone near 23,800 – 23,700 serves as immediate support for Nifty , with a deeper floor now established at 23,500. On the upside, resistance lies at 24,400 – 24,500 zone where may supply will come, he added.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index jumped 2,987.65 points, or 5.67%, to close at 55,703.90 on Wednesday, forming a strong bullish candlestick pattern with a higher high and a higher low.
“Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 56,200 – 56,300 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 56,700, followed by 57,000 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 55,200 – 55,100 zone is likely to act as an immediate support,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Bajaj Broking Research highlighted that the Bank Nifty index closed above the 20-day EMA, signalling strength and pause in the recent downtrend.
“Sustaining above the 20-day EMA and the Wednesday bullish gap area will keep the bias positive and extend the current up move towards 56,300 and 57,000 levels in the coming sessions. Short-term support is revised higher towards 51,000 – 51,500 zone, being the current week’s low and 80% retracement of the last four sessions’ pullback,” said the brokerage firm.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
