The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Monday, tracking mixed global market cues, amid intensifying US-Iran war in the Middle East.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a weak start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,622 level, a discount of nearly 145 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The Indian stock market was closed for a holiday on Friday, 3 April 2025, on account of Good Friday.
On Thursday, the Indian stock market recovered from day’s low and ended higher, with the Nifty 50 closing above 22,700 level.
The Sensex rose 185.23 points, or 0.25%, to close at 73,319.55, while the Nifty 50 settled 33.70 points, or 0.15%, higher at 22,713.10.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex has defended the crucial 72,800 – 72,900 support zone, indicating strong demand at lower levels.
“Immediate resistance for Sensex is placed near 73,800 – 73,900, and a sustained move above this zone could trigger further upside momentum. On the downside, 72,800 remains a key support, and a breach below this level may lead to renewed selling pressure,” said Aakash Shah, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking.
Overall, he believes the market is in a high-volatility consolidation phase, and the near-term strategy favors a buy-on-dips approach near support while remaining cautious near resistance levels, until clearer global cues emerge.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, notable call writing was observed at the 22,800 strike, followed by the 23,000 strike. On the Put side, significant writing activity was recorded at the 22,500 and 22,600 strike levels, indicating key support zones.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a counterattack bullish candle signaling strong pullback after gap down opening. Nifty 50 formed a high-wave candle on the weekly chart, while continuing its pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
“A long green candle was formed on the daily chart after opening lower. Technically, this market action indicates a formation of bullish counter attack type candle pattern at the lows. The bearish chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms continued on the daily chart and Thursday’s low of 22,182 could now be considered as a new lower bottom of the pattern,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the buying seems to have started from near the support of 22,200 levels and Nifty 50 needs to sustain above the hurdle of 23,000 levels to consider this as a bottom reversal pattern. Immediate support is placed at 22,400 levels.
Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse noted that a strong rebound was witnessed from the 22,180 level, which is likely to act as a key support going ahead.
“Although the broader structure remains weak, a sharp pullback towards the 23,200 zone cannot be ruled out. A decisive break above 23,500 would be required to negate the bearish setup and open the path towards 24,000 and higher levels. Meanwhile, India VIX declined by around 5%, but continues to remain elevated at 25. This heightened volatility remains a concern and needs to ease for bulls to regain control,” said Jain.
Momentum indicators and oscillators on both the daily and weekly charts are still in oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a strong pullback move, he added.
According to Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd., despite a sharp intra-week recovery from the 22,180 level, the broader structure remains ‘sell on rise’ as the Nifty 50 index continues to trade below its 200-day EMA.
“For this week, the 22,450 – 22,500 zone stands as the immediate make-or-break support; a breakdown here could lead to a retest of the 22,000 – 21,800 demand area. On the upside, 23,000 and 23,350 now act as stiff hurdles. Expect continued volatility as the market seeks a stable bottom,” said Singh.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 100.10 points, or 0.19%, higher at 51,548.75 on Thursday, forming a bullish candlestick pattern as buying demand emerged from the key psychological level of 50,000 after a gap down opening.
On the daily chart, Bank Nifty has formed a sizeable bullish candle with a long lower shadow, highlighting strong buying interest at lower levels.
“For Bank Nifty, the immediate support is placed in the 51,100 – 51,000 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 50,500, followed by 50,000 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 52,000 – 52,100 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Bajaj Broking Research said that the Bank Nifty index, after recent sharp decline, has approached extreme oversold territory in the short-term chart so pullback cannot be ruled out.
“A move above last week’s high (52,025) will open further upside towards 53,500 levels. However, for any meaningful pause in the ongoing downtrend, the index needs to establish a sustained pattern of higher highs and higher lows in the daily chart, along with a close above recent high of 54,150,” said the brokerage firm.
On the downside, it expects weakness below the psychological 50,000 levels to signal extension of the decline towards 49,200 – 49,000 levels in the coming sessions.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
