The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see a muted opening on Friday, tracking a mixed trend in global markets, and ahead of the RBI policy announcement.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a tepid start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,521 level, a premium of nearly 9 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
Investors will watch out for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy decision later today. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is largely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged, while the central bank’s commentary on inflation, liquidity conditions, crude oil price risks, and the rupee will be keenly monitored.
On Thursday, the Indian stock market ended the flat with a positive bias, with the benchmark Nifty 50 holding above 23,400 level.
The Sensex rose 13.84 points, or 0.02%, to close at 74,360.01, while the Nifty 50 settled 10.95 points, or 0.05%, higher at 23,416.55.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
On daily charts, it has formed a small bullish candle, and on intraday charts, it is witnessing non-directional activity.
“We believe that the intraday market texture is non-directional; perhaps traders are waiting for a breakout on either side. For the bulls, the levels of 74,700 would act as immediate breakout zones. Above these levels, key levels for Sensex would be 75,000 and 75,300. On the flip side, 74,000 – 73,800 would act as crucial support zones,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
If Sensex slips below 73,800, he believes it could retest the levels of 73,500 – 73,300.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, significant call writing was observed at the 23,500 and 23,700 strikes, while put writing was concentrated at the 23,300 and 23,400 levels, indicating immediate support near lower levels and resistance around higher strikes.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating buying support emerging at lower levels.
“A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart, after the doji type candle formation on Wednesday. Technically, this market action indicates emergence of buying from near the key lower supports. Lower tops and bottoms is observed on the daily chart,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, having formed a new lower bottom around 23,150 levels recently, Nifty 50 is expected to bounce back further towards 23,900 by next week. Immediate support is placed at 23,300.
Sachin Gupta, VP – Research, Technical Research, at Choice Broking noted that the ability of Nifty 50 to recover from a gap-down opening and close in positive territory suggests that market participants remained willing to accumulate positions despite the weak start.
“From a technical perspective, immediate support is placed in the 23,200 – 23,250 zone, while resistance is observed in the 23,550 – 23,600 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41.72, indicating improving momentum though the index continues to trade below the stronger bullish zone,” said Gupta.
The volatility index, India VIX, declined by 2.41% to close at 15.88, indicating easing volatility and improving confidence among market participants, he added.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 121.90 points, or 0.22%, higher at 54,307.85 on Thursday, forming a third consecutive bullish candle on the daily chart with a higher high and a higher low, highlighting continuation of the pullback from the key support area amid stock specific action.
“Bank Nifty index continues to trade below its key moving averages. The daily RSI also indicates a lack of strong directional bias, suggesting sideways momentum in the near term. From a technical standpoint, the zone of 54,700 – 54,800 is likely to act as an immediate resistance for the index. A decisive move above the 54,800 mark could trigger an extension of the pullback rally, potentially pushing the Bank Nifty index towards 55,400,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
On the downside, he believes the zone of 53,900 – 53,800 is expected to provide strong support.
Bajaj Broking Research expects the Bank Nifty index to extend consolidation in the range of 52,500 – 55,500, and only a breakout or breakdown will signal directional movement in the index.
“Bank Nifty index has key support placed at 52,700 – 52,500 being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April bullish gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (49,955 – 57.456). On the higher side resistance is placed at 55,000 – 55,500 levels being the confluence of current week high and 50 days EMA,” said the brokerage firm.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
