The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Friday, tracking weakness in global markets, as a surge in crude oil prices stoked inflation fears and dampened sentiment.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,681 level, a discount of nearly 192 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Thursday, the Indian stock market ended lower for the fourth consecutive session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 23,900 level.
The Sensex dropped 363.66 points, or 0.47%, to close at 76,391.39, while the Nifty 50 settled 126.65 points, or 0.53%, lower at 23,869.60.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a bearish candle on daily charts, and it is holding a lower top formation on intraday charts, which supports further weakness from the current levels.
“We are of the view that as long as Sensex is trading below the 76,500 mark, a weak structure is likely to continue. On the downside, the index could slip to 76,000 – 75,700. On the flip side, above 76,500, the sentiment could change,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Beyond this level, he believes Sensex could bounce back to 76,800 – 77,000 levels.
Nifty Derivatives Data
In the derivatives segment, the Nifty PCR stood at 0.68, indicating a cautious-to-bearish undertone.
“The highest Put Open Interest (OI) was concentrated at the 23,800 strike, while the highest Call OI was seen at the 24,000 strike, highlighting 23,700 – 23,750 as the immediate support zone and 23,950 – 24,000 as the first resistance area. Unless the Nifty 50 index reclaims higher levels, it is likely to trade within the 23,700 – 24,000 range, with the overall bias remaining sideways to bearish,” said Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a small-bodied Doji candle on the daily timeframe, reflecting indecision after a volatile session. The index has now slipped below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating deterioration in the broader technical structure and reaffirming bearish dominance.
“A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadow. Technically, this market action signals weakness in Nifty 50 with volatility. Nifty is on the way down to the crucial supports of around 23,700 – 23,650 levels (previous significant opening upside gap of 15 June and ascending trend line support),” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, this is going to be a crucial base and there is a possibility of sizable bounce back from the lower supports in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,000 levels.
Riyank Arora, Associate Vice President – HNI & Derivatives, Hedged.in noted that the immediate support for the Nifty 50 index is placed around 23,800 – 23,750, followed by a stronger support zone near 23,650. On the upside, resistance is seen around 23,950 – 24,050. A sustained move above this range would be required to revive bullish momentum.
“The short-term trend remains under pressure, and traders should watch key support levels closely. Until a decisive recovery above resistance levels is seen, a cautious approach is advisable. Investors may continue to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy in fundamentally strong stocks while maintaining strict risk management,” said Arora.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended lower by 534.80 points, or 0.94%, at 56,592.00 on Thursday, forming a strong bearish candlestick on the daily chart, and closing below its 200-day moving average.
“Momentum indicators continue to reflect weakness, with the daily RSI placed at 44.20 and trending lower, suggesting that bearish momentum is still prevalent and that the Bank Nifty index may remain under pressure in the near term. Going forward, the 56,100 – 56,000 zone is expected to serve as a critical support area for Bank Nifty,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
He believes a decisive and sustained break below 56,000 could intensify selling pressure and drag the Bank Nifty index towards the 55,400 level.
“On the upside, the 56,900 – 57,000 zone is likely to act as a significant resistance hurdle. A sustained move above this range will be required to improve the near-term,” Shah added.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the Bank Nifty index is now testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, placed at 56,540, which has held so far but remains under pressure.
“On the hourly chart, the breakdown extended through the session, with the index slipping below the 56,900 zone that had acted as support over the past two weeks. A break below 56,540 could open the door towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 55,900, extending the decline further,” said Mehra.
On the upside, he said that 57,000 now served as the immediate resistance.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
