The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Tuesday, tracking weak sentiment in global markets, amid cautiousness over the US-Iran peace talks uncertainty.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,262 level, a discount of nearly 200 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Monday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 23,400 level.
The Sensex tanked 508.40 points, or 0.68%, to close at 74,267.34, while the Nifty 50 settled 165.15 points, or 0.70%, lower at 23,382.60.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a bearish candle on daily charts, and it is holding a lower top formation on intraday charts, which is largely negative.
“We believe that the short-term texture of the market is weak, but due to temporary oversold conditions, we could expect a technical bounce back from the current levels. For day traders, 74,500 would act as a trend decider level. Below this, the correction wave is likely to continue on the downside, with Sensex potentially slipping to 74,000 – 73,700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
On the flip side, above 74,500, he believes the bounce back could continue until 74,800 – 75,000.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, significant call writing was observed at the 23,500 and 23,600 strikes, while put writing was concentrated at the 23,400 and 23,200 levels, indicating immediate resistance near higher levels while support remains positioned around lower strikes.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a strong bearish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe as sellers remained in control throughout the session.
“Nifty 50 index witnessed a breakdown from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. The index faced strong resistance near its 50-DMA, placed at 23,690, and formed a bearish candle, indicating continued weakness in the near term. The previous swing low at 23,262 is expected to act as an immediate support level,” said Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse Ltd.
According to him, a decisive breach below this mark could accelerate selling pressure and drag the Nifty 50 index towards the 23,150 zone. Technical indicators have also turned unfavorable, with the MACD generating a fresh bearish crossover and the RSI slipping below the 50 level, signaling a loss of momentum and weakening market strength.
“On the volatility front, India VIX rose by nearly 2% to close around 16.50. A sustained move above the 17 mark could further heighten market uncertainty and keep participants on the edge, potentially leading to increased volatility in the coming sessions,” said Jain.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market by PhonePe said that the support for Nifty 50 lies at 23,200 – 23,300 zone, while resistance is placed at 23,550 – 23,650 levels.
“The 23,300 mark is the immediate line of defense for the bulls. If Nifty 50 breaks and closes below 23,200, it will signal a structural breakdown on the daily charts, potentially opening the doors for a deeper correction toward the 23,000 psychological milestone,” said Mayank Jain.
Yesterday’s breakdown zone has now converted into an immediate overhead ceiling. For the buyers to trigger a meaningful short-covering rally, the Nifty 50 index must decisively reclaim and sustain above the 23,650 mark on a closing basis, he added.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 596.10 points, or 1.10%, lower at 53,643.10 on Monday, forming a bearish candle on the daily chart, while it continues to trade below all key short-term moving averages.
“Bank Nifty also remained under pressure throughout the session, trading in a lower high–lower low formation. The index has corrected nearly 3.5% over the last four trading sessions after failing to sustain above its 50-day EMA. The RSI has declined from 55 to 43, signalling increasing bearish momentum, while the MACD line continues to trade below the zero line, further reinforcing the negative bias,” said Sudeep Shah – Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Going ahead, he believes the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 53,200 – 53,100 zone, and any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 52,700, followed by 52,300 in the short term.
“On the upside, the immediate resistance for the Bank Nifty index is placed in the 54,000 – 54,100 zone,” said Shah.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the RSI has declined to 43, slipping below the neutral zone. The MACD, although still marginally positive, has started to flatten rapidly and may slip into negative territory in the coming sessions.
“On the downside, the 53,300 – 53,200 zone remains the immediate support for Bank Nifty, followed by the critical swing low at 52,800. On the upside, the 54,000 – 54,300 zone, which is aligned with the 20-day SMA, remains the immediate resistance,” said Mehra.
According to him, the near-term outlook remains cautious unless the Bank Nifty index reclaims this resistance zone.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
