The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see a tepid opening on Monday, following mixed global market cues, amid cautiousness due to the uncertainties over the US-Iran peace talks.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a muted start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,726 level, a discount of nearly 22 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, weighed down by sudden fag-end selling, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 23,600 level.
The Sensex tanked 1,092.06 points, or 1.44%, to close at 74,775.74, while the Nifty 50 settled 359.40 points, or 1.50%, lower at 23,547.75.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex slipped below the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 75,900, and post-breakdown, selling pressure intensified. For the week, Sensex fell 0.85% and formed a long bearish candle on the weekly charts, which supports further weakness from the current levels.
“We believe that as long as Sensex trades below the 50-day SMA of 75,300, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, the index could slip to 74,100 – 73,800. Further downward movement may also continue, potentially dragging the index to 73,300 – 73,100. On the upside, above the 50-day SMA of 75,300, a bounce back could extend till 75,900,” said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
If Sensex crosses 75,900, he believes the index could move towards 76,500 – 76,800.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle on the daily chart with the close near the session’s low, indicating weak sentiment. For the week, the index declined 0.72%, forming a bearish candle with an upper wick on the weekly timeframe.
“Nifty 50 index continues to trade below all key moving averages, reflecting a cautious near-term outlook, while the RSI at 43 indicates subdued momentum. A crucial support zone is placed around 23,250 – 23,300, and a decisive breach below this range could accelerate selling pressure toward the 23,000 mark. On the upside, 23,800 remains a key resistance level and coincides with the 21-day EMA,” said Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd.
According to him, unless the Nifty 50 index reclaims and sustains above this level, the prevailing market strategy remains ‘sell on rise’.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market by PhonePe noted that while the 23,500 level (backed by the 50-day SMA) is the immediate line of defense, the chart shows a stronger support net around the 23,250 – 23,350 range. If this range breaks, Nifty 50 could open the door for a deeper correction toward the 23,000 mark.
“Nifty 50 may face resistance at 23,800 – 24,000 levels. The previous support zone has now flipped into a strong overhead resistance wall. For the bulls to regain short-term momentum, the index must clear this cluster,” said Jain.
The broader market stance will remain cautious until the Nifty 50 decisively reclaims and sustains itself above the 24,000 level, he added.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 614.65 points, or 1.12%, lower at 54,239.20 on Friday, forming a bearish candle on the daily chart. On the weekly timeframe, the Bank Nifty gained 0.34% and formed a shooting star pattern, with a long upper wick indicating rejection from higher levels.
During the month of May, the Bank Nifty index slipped 2.10%, forming a High Wave candle on the monthly timeframe, reflecting market indecisiveness.
“Bank Nifty the index is trading below its key moving averages, which are trending downward, suggesting a weak bias. The daily RSI remains in a sideways zone as per the RSI range shift rules, indicating lack of clear momentum. Going ahead, the 53,500 – 53,400 zone is expected to act as an important support for the index. A breach below 53,400 could trigger further downside, with the next key support placed around 52,700,” said Sudeep Shah, Head- Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
On the upside, he believes the 50-day EMA zone of 55,300 – 55,200 is likely to act as a crucial hurdle.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the weekly close near the lower end of the range, despite the nominal gain, is a cautionary signal suggesting that the recent recovery may face further resistance before extending higher.
“The daily RSI is placed near 46, slipping below the neutral zone, while the MACD line remains positive. On the downside, the 54,000 – 53,800 zone remains the immediate support area. On the upside, the 54,600 – 54,800 zone remains the immediate resistance zone,” said Mehra.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
