Nifty 50 outlook: Domestic brokerage firm Axis Securities believes the Indian stock market benchmark, Nifty 50, has the potential to hit 26,800 by March 2026 on reduced volatility and a soft landing in the US market.
The 26,800 Nifty target of Axis Securities factors in the Goldilocks scenario, or a favourable economic condition.
“Backed by expectations of political stability, policy continuity, fiscal prudence, an improving private capex cycle, rural revival, and a soft landing in the US market, Nifty 50 earnings are likely to grow at 17-18 per cent over FY23-27. This would augur well for capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) and increase the market multiples in the domestic market,” the brokerage firm said in a report.
Nifty’s target: The base, bull, and bear case scenarios
The base case, or the most likely or expected target of Nifty 50, is 25,500.
“In our base case, we revise our March 2026 Nifty target to 25,500 by valuing it at 20 times on March 2027 earnings. Based on the expectations of the earnings upgrade starting from Q3FY26 onwards, we see upside risk to our target,” said Axis Securities.
In the bull case, Axis Securities values Nifty at 21 times, translating into a March 2026 target of 26,800.
“Our bull case assumption is based on the Goldilocks scenario, which assumes an overall reduction in volatility and a successful soft landing in the US market. Private Capex is expected to receive a much-needed boost in the upcoming years, with the expectation of policy continuity,” said Axis.
In the bear case, Axis values Nifty at 17 times, arriving at a March 2026 target of 21,600.
“We assume the market will trade at above-average valuations, led by the likelihood of a policy shift in the Trump regime. The direction of currency, oil prices, and global trade developments will likely put pressure on export-oriented growth in the remaining part of FY26,” said Axis.
The brokerage firm underscored that due to Trump tariffs, the outlook for global growth has turned hazy.
“These developments will likely bring down the market multiple in the near term. However, based on the recent developments, the chances of this scenario playing out have reduced significantly,” Axis said.
Stocks to buy
While the medium—to long-term outlook for the overall market remains positive, Axis Securities expects the domestic market to experience volatility in the short run.
So, the brokerage firm recommends using the current dips in a phased manner and building a position with an investment horizon of 12-18 months in high-quality companies with high earnings visibility.
Axis Securities has selected 15 top picks across segments—nine stocks from the large-cap space and three each from the mid- and small-cap segments.
Large-cap stocks to buy
HDFC Bank (target price: ₹1,150), SBI (target price: ₹1,025), Bharti Airtel (target price: ₹2,300), Bajaj Finance (target price: ₹1,100), Varun Beverages (target price: ₹590), Shriram Finance (target price: ₹750), Avenue Supermarts (DMart) (target price: ₹5,280), Lupin (target price: ₹2,400), and Max Healthcare Institute (target price: ₹1,450).
Mid-cap stocks to buy
Hero MotoCorp (target price: ₹5,900), Prestige Estates Projects (target price: ₹2,000), and APL Apollo Tubes (target price: ₹1,950).
Small-cap stocks to buy
Kirloskar Brothers (target price: ₹2,330), Sansera Engineering (target price: ₹1,500), and Kalpataru Projects International (target price: ₹1,470).
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the broking firm, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
