April has been kind to the Nifty 50 bulls as the index has risen eight times in the last decade during the month. But the trend might not sustain this time as war clouds loom large.
Historical data from Trendlyne shows that between 2016 and 2025, barring 2021 and 2022, the 50-pack Nifty has ended the month of April in the green. The average return during this period has been 3%. Even during Covid 2020, after being severely beaten down in March (down 23%), the Indian stock market rebounded sharply and gained nearly 15%.
Will April effect play out on D-Street?
This time, too, the setup is similar, as the Nifty 50 has stumbled 11.3% in March, logging the worst monthly decline in six years, largely driven by geopolitical tensions around the US–Iran conflict. This has triggered heightened volatility, elevated crude oil prices, and persistent FII outflows, which may restrict the continuation of the usual April strength.
“The ‘April effect’ is a favourite among seasonality traders, but 2026 is throwing a massive wrench—or rather, a geopolitical sledgehammer—into that machinery. While history favours the bulls this month, the current landscape is more “survival of the fittest” than a spring rally,” said Vinit Bolinjkar – Head of Research- Ventura.
Operation Epic Fury — the US-Israel-Iran escalation — has already wiped out over ₹40 lakh crore in market cap in March alone. The Brent crude oil prices are hovering near $105–$110/barrel, raising fears of inflation and pushing the Indian rupee to fresh record lows. The domestic unit breached the 95-mark vs the US dollar for the first time on Monday, March 30.
FIIs have sold a record ₹1.13 lakh crore in March, and markets are surviving on DII.
Nitant Darekar, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said that a geopolitical overhang of this magnitude is not easily overridden by calendar patterns alone. “That said, Nifty valuations have corrected to approximately 19x — below the 10-year average of ~22x — which does offer a reasonable margin of safety for patient investors.”
According to the Bolinjkar, Nifty 50 has tested crucial supports around 22,450, and the first half of April will likely be a battleground of volatility rather than a clear upward trend. Any “April rally” this year would likely be a “relief rally” from oversold levels rather than a fundamental breakout, he added.
From a technical perspective, the index has weakened after breaking below its recent consolidation range, indicating a shift from accumulation to distribution, said Hitesh Tailor. Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking.
“Strong support is now seen around the 21,500–21,700 zone, which coincides with the 50-month EMA, making it a crucial demand area. On the higher side, any pullback towards the 23,500–24,000 zone is likely to face rejection, keeping the overall structure under pressure in the near term,” he opined.
What could move Nifty 50 in April?
The month of April will be action-packed. The RBI policy, earnings season and the US-Iran war will remain key factors expected to influence stock market sentiment.
“TCS kicks off results on April 9, followed by the large private banks and Infosys later in the month — with FY27 guidance and management commentary on demand outlook being the real signal to watch, not just headline numbers. IT, which has shed ~25% in 2026, remains a sector where guidance will matter far more than results,” opined Darekar.
Meanwhile, the RBI is slated to meet on April 6-8 this month. This will be the first meeting of the central bank in the new financial year. Bolinjkar said that a hawkish pause is expected. “If the RBI signals an inflation-target review or a surprise hike to defend the rupee, markets will react sharply.”
How to position your portfolio in April?
Amid high uncertainty on Dalal Street, analysts are advising selective buying.
The current market is in a “sell-on-rise” mode, said Bolinjkar. Therefore, he advises that instead of “all-in” bets, use a staggered allocation and wait for the Nifty to decisively reclaim the 23,850 level before assuming the bull run has resumed.
Sectorally, he opined that energy & metal stocks are your natural hedges against the war. “With supply disruptions, Upstream Oil (ONGC/Oil India) and Metal giants are positioned to capture the commodity price surge.”
He further added that banks remain earnings anchor, with strong credit growth of 15% likely, but NIMs could compress due to higher funding costs. In this space, he advised sticking to the top four bank stocks, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI and Axis Bank, as they offer an asset quality buffer.
Bolinjkar added that IT stocks could act as a hedge when the rupee weakens. “While they’ve been under pressure due to US recession fears, a revival in AI-led deals might show up in the Q4 commentary.”
Echoing similar views, Darekar said that for investors, the playbook is selective accumulation rather than broad positioning.
Domestic consumption, upstream oil, and defensives offer near-term resilience, while Financials and Autos — historically strong recovery leaders post geopolitical shocks — deserve a closer look on dips, he added.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
