Expert view on markets: Rohit Srivastava, founder and market strategist at Indiacharts.com, believes the Indian stock market can potentially rise to 33,000 and the Bank Nifty can hit 72,000 by the end of 2026. He also points out that gold and silver are extremely overbought on their monthly charts, and says he firmly believes that equities will outperform precious metals next year. In an interview with Mint, Srivastava shared his views on the Indian stock market outlook, the IT sector, and the FII-DII dichotomy.
Can Nifty 50 hit 30k by the end of next year?
Since 2023, the Nifty 50 has moved up in line with earnings growth – so if we price in an earnings revival to 15% for the calendar year 2026 (CY2026), then yes, we can expect to see Nifty at 30,000 by year-end.
But that misses the possibility that earnings grow stronger or that markets get rerated to a higher P/E ratio than the 18-22 range we have been stuck in since 2023. That would raise the potential to 33,000.
Outlook for Bank Nifty for the coming year
Financials are among the best-performing stocks for CY2025, and it does not look like 2026 will be any different. Bank Nifty came off a low valuation base in 2025 after a long period of underperformance.
Money moved out of overvalued stocks to banking. But banking is in a sweet spot now with the credit cycle showing early signs of revival and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on a path to lower interest rates.
Overall, the 7.5% economic growth projected for next year is good for financials. Bank Nifty can go to 72,000.
What is capping the market’s rise at present?
While significant progress has been made in trade negotiations, unless we see the deal signed, it remains a source of uncertainty for the market, given Donald Trump’s record of making statements that can hurt relationships or act as a pressure point.
So the market wants this out of its way. Otherwise, the Nifty has seen slow progress based on the revival in growth that has started to trickle in.
The second factor that affected market internals was the slew of IPOs over the last few months.
Investors often sell their stocks in the market to pay for the investment once allotted.
In the last two months, we saw selling in midcap and smallcap stocks more than largecaps on the back of this, resulting in a divergence between the Nifty and Nifty Total market index.
Can gold and silver see stellar gains next year, too?
Gold and silver are both extremely overbought on their monthly charts. We may be very close to the end of one wave of buying in precious metals for now.
The coming correction may not end the long-term bull market but offer the first serious setback to this asset class. In 2025, precious metals outperformed the stock market.
I firmly believe that equities will outperform precious metals in 2026.
Is it the right time to look at IT stocks?
While IT stocks look attractive because they were beaten down, the long-term growth has come into question, and therefore, investing in this sector for the long term without a deeper dive is not possible.
Generally, I would expect IT stocks to go up but underperform the stock market in returns. You have to find individual growth stocks inside the sector if you want to win here.
Will FIIs return to the Indian markets in 2026?
A lot of how FIIs respond to the Indian market will depend on the trade deal.
FIIs have reduced their selling recently, but for the pattern to accelerate to the buy side, we need more.
The valuation gap between India and other EMs has also reduced after we slowed down this year.
Therefore, there is hope that the pattern will change, but policy changes and continued growth would enable it.
The real driver would be tax changes if done. A change in their tax status would bring in a lot of FII money.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
