The Indian stock market rebounded on Friday, April 10, recovering most of the losses from the previous session, supported by gains in global equities as investor sentiment improved amid ongoing US-Iran ceasefire talks. Both benchmark indices traded nearly 1% higher, with the Sensex rising over 800 points and the Nifty 50 reclaiming the 24,000 mark.
However, investors remain cautious given the fragile nature of the ceasefire agreement. Crude oil prices continue to stay elevated amid uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit chokepoint.
The Nifty 50 has broken out of the 23,700–23,800 range but continues to face resistance near the key 25,000 level, last seen on February 27, 2026. At current levels around 24,000, the index is still trading nearly 9% below its record high of 26,373.20 recorded in January this year.
“The market is likely to await the outcome of the US-Iran peace talks scheduled for Saturday. The direction of crude oil prices, which will be influenced by the outcome of these discussions, will dictate market trends. If the talks lead to de-escalation in the conflict and drive crude prices down, the markets, particularly markets like India which are energy import-dependent, will bounce back,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.
He added that a failure in the US-Iran ceasefire talks, leading to a further spike in crude oil prices, could have the opposite effect on market sentiment.
Why is Nifty struggling to cross 25,000?
One of the key overhangs on the Indian stock market remains sustained selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). According to NSDL data, FPI outflows from Indian equities have reached ₹1,77,271 crore so far this year.
“It appears that FPIs are determined to sell in India and move money to other markets like South Korea and Taiwan where the earnings growth prospects are much superior in 2026. However, this will be a short-term view,” said Vijayakumar.
From a technical perspective, while the Nifty has moved above the 23,700–23,800 zone, it continues to trade below key exponential moving averages (EMAs), indicating that the broader trend lacks strong bullish conviction.
“The 25,000 level stands out as a major supply zone, where the Nifty 50 index is likely to face strong resistance, as it aligns closely with the 200-day EMA, creating a confluence barrier. Any pullback towards this zone may invite fresh selling, making it difficult for the index to sustain above it,” said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking.
While there has been a breakout from the lower high–lower low formation, suggesting a short-term recovery, the move still lacks strong follow-through buying. The inability to reclaim higher EMA levels reflects that bullish momentum is not yet strong enough, and the ongoing upmove could face exhaustion near resistance zones, he added.
Additionally, global geopolitical concerns and inconsistent institutional flows are keeping sentiment cautious at higher levels.
“In this backdrop, unless Nifty 50 witnesses strong participation and a decisive move above key moving averages, it is likely to struggle near the 25,000 mark, with the level acting as a significant hurdle in the near term,” said Tailor.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money highlighted that 24,000 continues to act as a psychological ceiling, and each attempt to move higher near this zone is encountering selling pressure, indicating ongoing profit-taking.
“Technically, Nifty 50 index remains in a recovery phase, though momentum appears to be moderating. For the next leg of the rally to materialise, a clean and sustained breakout above 24,000 is essential, which could then open the path toward the 24,300 – 24,500 range,” he said.
On the downside, the 23,700 – 23,600 zone serves as immediate support, while the 23,400 – 23,300 range remains a stronger demand base, he added.
“Overall, the structure appears constructive, but strength is yet to be confirmed. In the absence of a decisive breakout, the market is likely to remain range-bound,” said Ponmudi R.
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