Indian stock market: As the Indian benchmark indices are set to reopen for a full trading session on Thursday, 23 October 2025, following the Diwali 2025 Muhurat Trading session and the Diwali Balipratipada holiday, there is a strong possibility of a massive upside for the market.
The early signs of a potential surge were visible, with the Gift Nifty contracts surging nearly 1.5%, as investors focused on the India-US closing in on the potential bilateral trade deal.
Mint reported earlier that as both nations progress on the trade negotiations, the long-awaited trade deal can cut Trump tariffs on all Indian goods imports down to 15-16%, compared to their current level of 50%.
The Gift Nifty futures jumped by 385 points or 1.48% to hit an intraday high of 26,308 points on Wednesday, compared to the previous market close. Gift Nifty futures were trading 1.26% higher at 26,250 points as of 6:10 p.m. (IST), compared to 25,923 points on Tuesday’s close.
How will the markets react on Thursday?
Harshal Dasani, Business Head, INVAsset PMS, said that the last five market sessions on the Indian stock market have signalled strong optimism for equities. The expert highlighted that the Nifty 50 benchmark index can potentially hit a fresh all-time high level if the current momentum sustains in the markets.
“The GIFT Nifty surged nearly 400 points or around 1.5% today to trade near 26,300, marking a strong signal of optimism for Indian equities ahead of the domestic market open. The index has gained over 800 points, or 3.2%, in the past five sessions, reflecting sustained bullish sentiment driven by global risk-on trends, strong Q2 earnings, and easing U.S. Treasury yields,” said Dasani.
“The rise mirrors renewed investor confidence as India’s macro setup remains resilient—supported by moderating inflation, a stable rupee, and record foreign exchange reserves above $688 billion,” said the stock market expert.
“A fresh all-time high for the Nifty 50 now looks within reach, provided momentum sustains. The market is being buoyed by expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India in early 2026, alongside consistent domestic inflows through SIPs and robust corporate profitability. With GIFT Nifty trading firmly above 26,200, sentiment is turning decisively bullish. However, traders will watch for follow-through buying in large-cap banks and capital goods stocks to confirm a breakout. The trend indicates a strong start to the week and possibly a new record high if global cues remain supportive and FII flows continue positive into month-end,” said Dasani.
India-US trade deal
India and the United States are closing in on their long-awaited bilateral trade agreement (BTA), which is likely to cut the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump by more than half of their current levels.
According to the earlier reports, energy and agriculture are the key aspects which are on the negotiation table, where India may even have to agree to reduce its dependency and import of Russian oil.
India is also likely to consider America’s request for access to the Indian agricultural market. However, over time, India has reiterated their stance that the government will do what is best for the people of the nation and its large farmer population.
People aware of the development told Mint that both nations can potentially finalise the BTA and announce it at the ASEAN Summit later this month, which would likely be attended by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Read all stories by Anubhav Mukherjee
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
