Shares of NALCO, a PSU engaged in the manufacturing and sale of alumina and aluminium, continued to trade higher for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, November 13, surging 2% to a fresh all-time high of ₹271.90 apiece, resulting in a four-day cumulative gain of 16%.
The recent acceleration in the stock followed the company’s September quarter results, which beat Street estimates and prompted brokerages to revise target prices higher, projecting sustained demand for alumina and favorable pricing.
The company reported a strong set of numbers, with consolidated revenue at ₹4,292 crore, up 7% YoY and 13% QoQ, while EBITDA stood at ₹1,926 crore, up 24% YoY, mainly driven by higher alumina sales.
NALCO demonstrated superior cost control, keeping raw material, employee, and power costs under check.
On the bottom line, net profit jumped 37% to ₹1,430 crore, aided by higher other income and lower depreciation and amortization expenses. The company also declared a first interim dividend of ₹4 per share for FY26.
In Q2FY26, alumina prices averaged $360 per tonne, with the current spot at around $320–$340 per tonne. Management expects prices to remain at similar levels in H2FY26, citing historical trends.
The slight softness in prices is attributed to new refinery capacity coming online in Indonesia and China, along with some smelting capacity curbs, which have increased alumina availability.
Analysts lift target price after Q2 results
Axis Securities retained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and lifted the target price to ₹265, valuing the company at 6.0x Sep’27E EBITDA. Prabhudas Lilladher also revised the target price higher to ₹281 while retaining a ‘Buy’ rating, whereas Motilal Oswal has a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock with a target price of ₹250 per share.
According to a domestic brokerage firm Axis Securities, Nalco’s timely expansion and ramp-up of the 5th stream alumina refinery with a 1 MTPA capacity by FY27 will be crucial, although the Capex has already experienced cost overruns.
The company plans a total Capex of ₹30,000 crore for the 0.5 MTPA smelter and 1,080 MW CPP, which will increase from FY28, with execution being key. It has guided a capital structure with a 70:30 leverage ratio for the expansion.
NALCO share price recovers 96% from April lows
Ending a long five-month losing streak, Nalco’s shares regained momentum in May, surging 15%. The rally was further strengthened in the following months amid a sharp rise in global commodity prices, easing geopolitical tensions, and a softer US dollar, which together helped the stock close four of the next five months in the green.
In the current month as well, the shares have advanced another 15%, and from the April low of ₹137.75, they have recovered 96.3%. If the stock maintains this momentum in the coming weeks, it will mark its third consecutive year of gains.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
