(Bloomberg) — The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is injecting fresh uncertainty into the Middle East’s equity capital markets, putting what has been a resilient region so far this year to the test.
While no initial public offerings have been officially delayed or pulled, there’s now greater risk that trading conditions will be choppy for new deals. The impact of a protracted conflict on the next window of opportunity, after the summer break, also remains unclear.
“Large, government-backed IPOs are unlikely to proceed in the short term due to elevated regional uncertainty,” said Akber Khan, acting chief executive officer of Al Rayan Investment in Doha. “However, domestic-focused, smaller IPOs shouldn’t be greatly affected.”
The geopolitical tension could create a more chaotic backdrop for the trading debut of Saudi Arabian low-cost carrier Flynas Co., which is expected in the coming weeks. The listing, which is the largest Middle Eastern IPO so far this year, will test the region’s equity markets amid all the uncertainty. It has attracted more than $100 billion in orders, indicating strong institutional demand.
The Middle East has had solid ECM activity so far this year, shaking off the disruption from US tariffs faster than other regions.
Emirates NBD Capital Ltd.’s CEO Hitesh Asarpota said the Dubai-based bank did not have any IPOs lined up until September, and that its post-summer pipeline remains unaffected. “Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with regional markets that appear to be stabilizing,” he added.
The conflict broke out as several firms in Saudi Arabia were advancing with their IPO plans. Specialized Medical Co. is set to conclude the retail subscription of its $500 million IPO this week, with a listing date yet to be announced, while gym chain operator Sports Club is slated to reveal the price range of its IPO on June 22. Developer Dar Al Majed Real Estate Co., Marketing Home Group Co. and tech firm Ejada Systems Ltd. all have regulatory approval to list.
As hostilities between Israel and Iran show little sign of easing, concerns are mounting over the potential for a drawn-out conflict. But Middle East equity markets have proved resilient to breakouts of violence over the past few years.
“The recent history for MENA equities is that markets realize quickly that a spasm of fighting does not impact the medium- to long-term economic and earnings trajectory,” wrote JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts David Aserkoff and Inga Q Galeni in a client note on Friday seen by Bloomberg.
Still, the likelihood that the military violence will last for weeks, not days, is higher this time, and they believed the risk of broader escalation is greater, the analysts said.
While geopolitical tension has injected volatility into equities, it may also offer some support to Gulf markets through higher oil prices. Brent crude has rebounded to around $75 a barrel — seen as favorable for the Gulf Cooperation Council’s oil-exporting economies — after falling earlier this year on expectations of increased OPEC supply.
“In the coming days and weeks, any news flow regarding a sustained shock to oil supply will be critical,” Al Rayan’s Khan said.
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