MCX silver rate today: Silver’s bull run that came to an abrupt halt towards the end of January has brought prices almost 40% lower from their all-time high of ₹4,20,000 on the Multi Commodity Exchanges.
What most investors don’t realise is that to reclaim this level, the MCX silver rate would need to surge a whopping 75% this year from the current level of around ₹2,40,000 per kilogram. That is no mean feat, especially considering prices had already jumped 170% last year, with the rally running ahead of fundamentals and pushing prices to unsustainable highs.
Silver prices have multiple structural support like years of supply deficits, robust industrial demand from sectors like solar PV, EVs, electronics, and growing investor flows into physical and ETF holdings.
Can silver top ₹4,20,000 in 2026?
However, analysts point out that after the recent correction in silver prices, while reaching new record highs this year is certainly possible, it is unlikely unless there is a strong convergence of factors to create the right environment.
A 70% move in one year is not impossible, but it is not the highest-probability base case — particularly with short-term corrections and volatility common in commodities, opined Nirpendra Yadav, Senior Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza.
Analysts believe a full rebound will need persistent strong drivers, along with supportive macro conditions like a weaker dollar, continued rate cuts, and high geopolitical risks.
“A combination of falling real interest rates, a weaker USD, and a clear shift toward monetary easing by major central banks could still see upward movement on silver prices. Industrial demand from solar, electronics, and electrification will also play a key role, but this is currently steady rather than explosive, and current inventories and recycling flows can cap price spikes,” said Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead, VT Markets.
Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services, sounded bearish on the silver prices as he “doesn’t expect such a move again” in the white metal.
He expects more corrective moves in silver and therefore advises not to go long at the current market prices.
What could be the possible hurdles for silver?
The tailwinds that could turn headwinds and limit upside for silver include a stronger US dollar or less aggressive rate cuts as expected by the US Federal Reserve.
Such moves are expected to pressurise the non-yielding assets like gold and silver. “Recently seen rapid price surges fueled by speculative flows can lead to outsized corrections if sentiment shifts,” Yadav cautioned.
How should investors position themselves?
These forecasts bring silver allocation into focus. Silver prices cracked 3% today to ₹239,567 on the MCX. The prices have been caught on a volatile note since the fall at the end of January, which was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Walsh as US Fed chair and a spike in the US dollar.
Since then, prices have been rangebound. Against this backdrop, Mer advised waiting for the current volatility to settle down and for a possible reversal point before initiating fresh longs.
For current investors, holding a core allocation for long-term exposure makes sense, but holding in the expectation of another parabolic move this year may lead to over-exposure, opined Maxwell.
He added that investors who already hold large positions can look for partial profit-taking on rallies while keeping a strategic core position, as silver historically has short-term, sharp spikes followed by extended consolidations.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
