Lodha Developers Ltd put up a solid show in the December quarter (Q3FY26) with best-ever quarterly pre-sales or bookings of ₹5,620 crore, up over 20% sequentially and year-on-year. Pre-sales were primarily driven by a project launch in South Mumbai. While launches picked up versus H1FY26, they were focused on select micro markets.
In the first nine months of the fiscal year (9MFY26), pre-sales grew 14% on-year to ₹14,640 crore. Lodha has new launches worth ₹12,800 crore slated to be released in the March quarter (Q4FY26), in South Mumbai, Hinjewadi in Pune, and Sewri in Mumbai. Plus, sales traction in existing projects should also help. Nuvama Research is of the view that Lodha is on track to clock 32% on-year pre-sales growth in Q4, which is required to meet its FY26 booking guidance of ₹21,000 crore.
Project pipeline
Lodha has gained a strong foothold on the business development front as well. It entered the National Capital Region (NCR) during the quarter by adding two JDA projects in Gurugram. Overall, Lodha has added five projects across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, the National Capital Region, and Bengaluru in Q3FY26 with gross development value (GDV) or revenue potential of ₹33,800 crore. This should provide Lodha with geographical diversification in the medium term. It added 11 projects with a GDV of around ₹58,800 crore in 9MFY26, thus meaningfully surpassing its FY26 business development guidance of ₹25,000 crore.
Business development in real estate mainly refers to land acquisitions and joint venture-related investments for project development. It is crucial for realty companies to strengthen the launch pipeline and consequently spur pre-sales and growth visibility.
Since it now has a substantial project pipeline for the next five years, land-related capital expenditure can moderate, the management said. For now, given these land investments, net debt inched up sequentially to ₹6,170 crore, although the net debt-to-equity ratio remains comfortable at 0.28x and lower than the management’s ceiling of 0.5x.
Collections dipped 17% on-year to ₹3,560 crore in Q3FY26 and ₹9,920 crore for 9MFY26. Delays in the receipt of environmental clearance affected construction, which led to a delay in achieving collection milestones for projects. Lower collections pushed Lodha to reduce its OCF guidance for FY26 to ₹7,000 crore from ₹7,700 crore earlier. The management expects a ramp-up in collections in Q4FY26 as it reaches construction timelines.
Demand scenario
Commenting on demand, the management said footfalls and conversions remain healthy in its key market, MMR, and has guided to price hikes of 5-6% on-year in FY26. However, Nuvama cautioned that falling housing volumes in its core markets, the MMR and Pune, are a cause for concern.
Further, Antique Stock Broking says, with growing supply in major micro-markets from reputed players, Lodha’s growth rate is expected to be at a low double-digit of 10%-15% going forward. Antique has reduced FY27 and FY28 pre-sales estimates by 4% and 12% to ₹24,100 crore and ₹26,600 crore, respectively.
Given slower launches/delayed clearances and lingering worries over housing demand, the stock is down 16% in the past one year, a tad higher than the Nifty Realty index.
Meanwhile, Palava City in Dombivli is seen as one of the key growth and re-rating drivers for Lodha, where it has a land bank of 600 million square feet. Among the positive developments for its Palava land parcel, the likely opening of the Mulund-Airoli-Palava Freeway in Q4FY26, should improve connectivity, aiding sales of its residential projects there. Lodha has also signed two memoranda of understanding with the Government of Maharashtra to invest and facilitate investment in its Data Centre Parks at Palava.
