A job seeker holds a Now Hiring Correctional Officers paperwork from the Florida Department of Corrections during the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on April 30, 2026, in Sunrise, Florida.
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Traders on prediction markets platform Kalshi are penciling in a better-than consensus estimate for the April labor market report set to release on Friday.
Kalshi traders think there’s about a 50% chance nonfarm payrolls will come in at 66,000 jobs or more created in the month. That’s higher than predictions by economists polled by Dow Jones for 53,000 new jobs.
While in the last year nonfarm payroll growth has swung back and forth between job creation and job losses, traders see an 81% chance this report is a positive number. That would be the first back-to-back month of job growth since May 2025.
But traders are also skeptical of a big six-digit report, as they give it just a 30% chance that the report comes in hot at 100,000 or more.
Nonfarm payroll growth has slowed enormously since 2025. In the last 10 months, five have experienced negative job growth. And in 2026, job growth has been volatile, with more than 150,000 jobs gained in both January and March but 133,000 lost in February.
On Polymarket, traders have a slightly more pessimistic outlook. Traders on that platform think the most likely scenario is a report between zero to 50,000 jobs created, with odds at 26%.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.
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