Adani Green Energy received a bullish outlook from domestic brokerage firm JM Financial, which initiated coverage on the stock with a target price of ₹1,289 apiece, indicating an upside of 19% from the previous close of 1,088.
JM Financial highlighted the company’s strong execution track record and group-level synergies, adding that it expects Adani Green to achieve its ambition of reaching 50 GW of capacity by FY30.
The brokerage highlighted three key factors behind its bullish stance on Adani Green Energy:
Immense strengths
JM Financial said the company has demonstrated a strong execution track record, adding nearly 14 GW over the past decade while effectively leveraging synergies across the Adani Group’s transmission, distribution, and infrastructure businesses.
It also noted that Adani Green has secured over 2.5 lakh acres of high-quality renewable energy sites across India. According to the brokerage, the company’s operating assets have consistently met or exceeded P-90 benchmarks for four consecutive years. JM Financial added that 25-year PPAs back about 81% of the 16.8 GW operational portfolio, ensuring stable long-term cash flows.
Achievable goals and strategy
JM Financial said Adani Green’s target of achieving 50 GW of installed renewable and storage capacity by FY30 appears realistic given its pace of expansion and strategic clarity. The brokerage added that the company plans to rebalance its portfolio mix from the current 81%/19% (long-term PPAs/merchant) to 75%/25% by 2030 to strengthen its EBITDA profile.
JM Financial also pointed out that Adani Green is expanding into the C&I segment, securing its first agreement to supply 61 MW of renewable energy to power Google’s data center.
Financial momentum gains strength
JM Financial highlighted the company’s strong financial performance, noting that revenue grew at a 3-year CAGR of 30% to ₹112.1 billion in FY25, while EBITDA margins improved from 69% in FY22 to 79% in FY25.
The brokerage said strong internal accruals, along with a USD 1.1 billion promoter warrant infusion, have ensured adequate equity for expansion and helped moderate net debt-to-EBITDA from 10.1x in FY20 to 6.4x in FY25.
JM Financial estimates that Adani Green will deliver a CAGR of 29%/32%/41% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25–28E, supported by stable EBITDA per MW at ₹7–8 million and further improvement in net debt-to-EBITDA to 5.3x by FY28.
Based on the company’s proven execution capabilities and group synergies, JM Financial values the stock at 14x FY28 EV/EBITDA (run-rate EBITDA for 28 GW) and assigns a target price of ₹1,289 per share.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
