The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Wednesday, as indicated by the Gift Nifty. Investors are likely to see domestic stocks open with deep cuts following a market holiday on Tuesday on account of Holi.
The weakness comes as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran continue to escalate, keeping crude oil prices trading at multi-month highs and fueling fears that a prolonged war in the region could disrupt oil supplies, as the country meets 85% of its crude requirements through imports.
Global benchmark Brent rose above $80 a barrel to reach the 19-month high of $85.12 in today’s trade, after spiking about 7% on Monday
Energy supply disruption concerns have mounted after Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz and warned it would fire on vessels attempting to pass through the strategic chokepoint, pushing oil prices higher. Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait functions as a vital artery for global oil trade.
If crude stays higher for longer, it will impact India’s annual import bill and put pressure on the trade balance, which in turn could escalate the sell-off in the Indian rupee. Further, higher crude oil prices could lead to a rise in consumer prices, impacting the monetary policy decisions of the RBI.
According to estimates by domestic brokerage firm JM Financial, every USD 1 increase in crude raises India’s annual import bill by approximately USD 2 billion. The brokerage also stated that the Indian rupee faces a near-term depreciation bias, with potential RBI intervention through foreign exchange reserves.
Crude oil is a major raw material for many industries, including paints and tyres, and higher prices may potentially impact their margins and profitability.
The transmission channel is clear: higher crude increases inflation risk; higher inflation pushes bond yields up; rising yields compress equity multiples.
Gift Nifty Today
Gift Nifty was trading around the 24,145 level, a discount of nearly 789 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close of 24,934, indicating a gap-down start for the Indian stock market indices on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, key markets in the Asia-Pacific region closed with deep losses in Tuesday’s session, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping 3.06% and the Kospi index being down even sharper by 7.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has lost 1.25% of its value in trade, and Shanghai has tumbled 1.43%.
On Monday, the Nifty 50 closed 1.24% lower at the 24,865 level, while the S&P Sensex lost 1.29% to settle at 80,238. The broader markets also finished with sharp losses, with both the Nifty Midcap 100 index and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index falling over 1.5%.
US stock market crash today
The US key averages have crashed sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1,135 points, or 2.3%, at the day’s low. If that holds, it would mark the blue-chip index’s first 1,000-point decline since April 10, 2025.
The S&P 500 fell by 2.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 2.3% at their respective intraday lows.
Disclaimer: We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
