The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Monday, as the escalating war in the Middle East rattled investors globally after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Asian markets traded sharply lower, while the US stock futures declined, and gold prices rallied along with a surge in crude oil prices.
This week, investors will focus on key stock market triggers, including the US-Iran war, crude oil prices, gold and silver rates, flow of foreign funds, and key domestic and global macroeconomic data releases.
On Friday, the Indian stock market crashed as the escalating US-Iran war weighed on investor sentiment amid the absence of a fresh domestic trigger.
The Sensex cracked 961.42 points, or 1.17%, to close at 81,287.19, while the Nifty 50 settled 317.90 points, or 1.25%, lower at 25,178.65.
“Markets are likely to open with a cautious to negative bias amid geopolitical overhang and elevated crude prices. A gap-down opening cannot be ruled out if global cues remain weak,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:
Asian Markets
Asian markets traded sharply lower on Monday as the war between Iran and the US-Israel escalated. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged almost 2%, and the Topix tumbled 2.1%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening. South Korea’s markets are closed for a public holiday.
Gift Nifty Today
Gift Nifty was trading around 25,223 level, a discount of nearly 115 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a gap-down start for the Indian stock market indices.
Wall Street
US stock futures tumbled in overnight trading amid the Iran war. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 517 points, or 1%, while S&P 500 futures lost 1% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined over 1%.
On Friday, US stock market ended lower, dragged down by financial and tech stocks, with all three major indexes posting steep weekly declines. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq logged their steepest monthly declines since March 2025, while the Dow Jones eked out its tenth straight month of gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 521.28 points, or 1.05%, to 48,977.92, while the S&P 500 declined 29.98 points, or 0.43%, to 6,878.88. The Nasdaq Composite closed 210.17 points, or 0.92%, lower at 22,668.21.
Nvidia stock price dropped 4.2%, AMD shares fell 1.70%, Microsoft share price declined 2.24%, Apple stock price fell 3.21% and Tesla stock price declined 1.49%.
Zscaler shares cracked 12.2%, Netflix share price jumped 13.8%, Warner Bros Discovery stock price dropped 2.2%, Paramount Skydance shares soared by 20.8%, Block shares surged 16.8% and Dell stock price shot up 21.9%.
US-Israel-Iran War
The war in the Middle East escalated after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the US-Israel joint strikes. US President Donald Trump said that 48 Iranian leaders have been killed in the ongoing US-Israeli strikes on the country. Ayatollah Arafi has been named as the Islamic Republic’s interim supreme leader.
India GDP Growth
The new GDP series pegged India’s economic growth at 7.8% for the October-December quarter, faster than the 7.4% growth seen in the same time a year ago. The estimate for the full fiscal year FY26 GDP growth has also risen to 7.6% from the 7.4% estimated in January. Economic growth in the previous fiscal year was given as 7.1% in the new series.
OPEC
OPEC agreed to resume oil production increases next month amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will add 206,000 barrels a day, according to a statement. The increase exceeds the monthly increments of just 137,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter and comes amid turmoil roiling the Middle East.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices jumped 7% to their highest levels in months due to the Middle East conflict following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, with the vital Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and several ships attacked. Brent crude oil price shot up 7.60% to $78.41 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rallied 7.19% to $71.86.
Gold Rate Today
Gold prices rallied, as war in the Middle East increased safe-haven demand. Spot gold price rose 1.4% to $5,353.61 an ounce, while silver prices gained 1.5% to $95.23 an ounce.
Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin prices were trading higher amid broader gains in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin price rose 1.12% to $67,007, while the second largest token, Ethereum prices rallied 1.82% to $1,983.99.
US Treasury Yields
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to around 3.93%, marking its lowest level since September 2024 as the escalating Middle East war drove demand for safe-haven bonds.
US Dollar
The US dollar surged against the basket of currencies. The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1774, the Japanese yen was little changed at 155.99 per dollar and the offshore yuan fell 0.3% to 6.8841 per dollar.
Japanese Bond Yields
Japanese government bonds jumped, driving yields sharply lower, as investors responded to military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell 3.5 basis points (bps) to 2.075% in early trading. The 20-year JGB yield slid 3 bps to 2.895%.
GST Collection
Gross GST collection increased by 8.1% to over ₹1.83 lakh crore in February, led by higher growth in revenues from imports and improved domestic sales. Total net Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection stood at over ₹1.61 lakh crore, up 7.9% YoY.
FPI Inflows
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in the Indian stock market in February, snapping a three-month streak of outflows, and recording their highest monthly inflows in the past seventeen months. FPIs net bought Indian equities worth ₹22,615 crore in February, according to NSDL data.
Fiscal Deficit
India’s fiscal deficit for April-January FY26 stood at ₹9.81 lakh crore, or 63% of the revised estimate (RE) for 2025-26. This compares with 74.5% of the full-year target utilised in the corresponding period last year, suggesting tighter fiscal management so far in FY26.
(With inputs from Agencies)
