India-China news: The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz turned out to be a rescue tool for the Iranian government against the US-Israel attack. However, the US-Iran war has also fueled the upcoming possible border aggressions, like China attacking Taiwan or India, as the Dragon has beyond-border ambitions in these two countries. As Iran was ready for any kind of border aggression by Israel or the US, the Indian military staff have been successfully safeguarding the Indian territory from China. The Galwan Valley clash in 2020 is a glaring example of it.
According to experts, except in 1962, China never dared to indulge in a direct military fight with India. In fact, they chose a proxy war to keep India busy with its neighbouring countries. However, India not only foiled these proxy wars but also modernised its defence through new defence ties and technology transfers. The recent defence deals with Germany, the EU, France and Israel are glaring examples of it. However, experts also pointed out that in the event of any border aggression by China, India also has the ‘Strait of Hormuz’, which can be used to cut off around 80% of China’s total oil and energy imports.
Lessons for India and China from the US-Iran war
On lessons that India and China can learn from the US-Iran war, Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, said that China understands that any full-scale military confrontation with India carries risks far beyond the land border, particularly in the maritime domain.
“The Strait of Malacca remains a critical energy lifeline for Beijing, with a significant share of its crude imports passing through this narrow chokepoint—often described as China’s long-standing Malacca dilemma. This is where India’s geography becomes strategically relevant. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands provide India with a natural vantage point near the western entrance of Malacca, strengthening its ability to monitor and potentially influence maritime traffic in a conflict scenario,” said Ponmudi of Enrich Money.
However, China has, over the years, built strategic petroleum reserves, diversified supply routes through Russia and Myanmar, and invested in reducing its dependence on a single corridor. India, therefore, cannot assume that disruption alone would decisively alter the balance.
India’s maritime edge over China
Highlighting New Delhi’s maritime edge over Beijing, Akshat Garg, Head of Research & Product at Choice International, said that India effectively holds its own “Strait of Hormuz” against China in the form of the Malacca Strait, through which roughly 80% of China’s oil imports transit via the Indian Ocean. Any major conflict or deliberate blockade by India of this maritime chokepoint would severely disrupt Beijing’s energy supply chain, crimping the dragon’s industrial and commercial activity at a time when it is already sensitive to global oil‑price volatility. This creates a powerful asymmetric deterrent: China simply cannot afford a full‑scale conventional war with India, given that its dependence on seaborne crude via the Malacca far exceeds its current land‑based or pipeline alternatives.
Expecting the Chinese administration to indulge more in the proxy wars instead of an intensified US-Iran like India-US war, the Choice International expert said, “Strategically, Beijing is far more likely to lean into limited‑warfare tactics—border skirmishes, information operations, and proxy pressure—rather than direct large‑scale military aggression. China will continue to exploit its influence in Islamabad, Dhaka, Kathmandu and other regional capitals to keep India off‑balance, while jointly relying on energy‑market dynamics and shipping‑channel dependencies to shape the security conversation.”
Akshat Garg said that from a crude‑oil‑market standpoint, any credible threat to Malacca‑linked flows would hurt China’s own manufacturers and force India to recalibrate its Malacca Strait‑linked import basket, making both sides mindful of the fine line between coercion and mutual economic pain.
So, the Malacca Strait remains a powerful deterrence factor for India against China. It raises the cost of fuel and energy for China, which is why Beijing is more likely to continue with calibrated pressure through border tensions and regional influence rather than risk a full-scale confrontation.
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