InCred Equities has released its latest India Strategy report for September 2025, highlighting high-conviction stock ideas across large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap categories. The brokerage maintained its cautious stance on the Nifty 50 index, projecting a flat target but preferring large-cap stocks for stability.
According to InCred Equities, India’s economic backdrop remains supportive, with GDP growth for Q1 FY26 coming in at a strong 7.8 percent, aided by government spending, robust exports to the US, and healthy growth in services and agriculture sectors. The brokerage noted that short-term risks persist, including potential export slowdowns due to higher tariffs and production deferments ahead of the GST overhaul. However, it added that above-normal monsoon forecasts by the IMD (9 percent above vs. 6 percent YTD) could further support the economy and improve kharif output.
Large-Cap Picks Remain in Focus
InCred Equities’ high-conviction list for September features multiple large-cap names with attractive upside potential. The brokerage retained HDFC Bank (ADD, TP: ₹1,125, upside 19.1%), Tata Consultancy Services (ADD, TP: ₹3,818, upside 22.7%), and Bajaj Finance (ADD, TP: ₹1,100, upside 23.6%) as core holdings.
It also recommended Axis Bank (ADD, TP: ₹1,430, upside 35.4%) and NTPC (ADD, TP: ₹390, upside 15.9%) on expectations of steady growth and improved profitability. Shriram Finance stood out with the highest upside among large caps (ADD, TP: ₹870, upside 48.8%), followed by Lupin (ADD, TP: ₹2,400, upside 27%).
On the other hand, Maruti Suzuki (ADD, TP: ₹14,509) was seen with a marginal downside of 2.2 percent, while InterGlobe Aviation (REDUCE, TP: ₹3,030) and Tata Steel (REDUCE, TP: ₹82) were downgraded due to limited near-term triggers and valuation concerns, with downside risks of 46.5 percent and 48.2 percent, respectively.
Mid- and Small-Cap Ideas
In the mid-cap space, InCred Equities highlighted Container Corporation of India (ADD, TP: ₹970, upside 78%) as its top pick, calling it a strong play on India’s logistics growth theme. Ajanta Pharma (ADD, TP: ₹3,100) was also featured with a 25 percent upside potential, driven by robust earnings growth expectations.
Among small caps, the brokerage maintained a selective approach, preferring quality names with earnings visibility. Key picks include Deepak Fertilisers (ADD, TP: ₹2,051, upside 41.7%), Globus Spirits (ADD, TP: ₹1,850, upside 54.6%), and TCPL Packaging (ADD, TP: ₹4,530, upside 33.6%).
Camlin Fine Sciences (ADD, TP: ₹428) emerged as a standout small-cap idea, offering a potential upside of 102.7 percent — the highest across the entire list. E2E Networks (ADD, TP: ₹3,245) and Skipper (ADD, TP: ₹612) were also seen with healthy upside potential of 35 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively.
However, InCred Equities downgraded Clean Science and Technology (REDUCE, TP: ₹683) citing a 41.4 percent downside risk due to valuation concerns.
Technical Trends and Portfolio Changes
InCred Equities noted that Bajaj Auto (ADD) and Bajaj Finance (ADD) showed favourable technical trends, making them attractive tactical plays for September. The brokerage removed Ethos from its high-conviction list, citing likely near-term headwinds from GST changes and rupee depreciation, though it maintained that the company’s long-term fundamentals remain strong.
Overall, InCred Equities’ September strategy signals a strong tilt toward large caps while remaining selective in mid and small caps. The brokerage believes that macroeconomic stability, robust GDP growth, and improving sector fundamentals offer a conducive environment for stock selection, with names like Container Corporation of India, Camlin Fine Sciences, and Shriram Finance standing out as high-conviction buys for investors looking for both stability and upside potential.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
