It’s been almost one month since the US-Israeli war with Iran, which kicked off on February 28. And despite the heightened geopolitical tensions, the gold and silver — known for their safe-haven appeal — have taken a sharp beating, raising concerns around a possible end to the bull run in bullion.
Gold prices have crashed 16% in a month, and the silver rate is down 27%. The correction stems primarily from liquidity pressures and fading Federal Reserve rate-cut bets.
“Broader market sell-offs have forced investors to liquidate precious metals to meet margin calls, amplifying downside momentum. Concurrently, persistent inflation, driven by elevated crude oil prices, has prompted the markets to recalibrate their rate expectations, which has propelled the US dollar higher and real yields upward, both of which traditionally act as headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold and silver,” said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities.
But the question remains, is it the end of the bull run in gold and silver? Investors must understand that this breather comes on the back of the best annual run-up in the gold and silver prices in over 40 years. In 2025, gold zoomed 70% and silver over 150%.
Gold, silver entering consolidation phase?
Though we are in a long-term precious metal bull market – very similar to 1991-2011, the chart for the 1st leg of the bull rally is completed in January 2026, when the gold-to-silver ratio attained lows of 42, highlights Karan Aggarwal, Co-founder & CIO, Ametra PMS.
Technically, we are in a cooling-off phase where gold and silver are looking at a liquidation cycle to create space for the next leg of rally, and this softness in price might continue till the ratio again reaches levels of 80, he opined.
The gold-silver ratio measures the amount of gold needed to purchase an ounce of silver, and is a key metric used by traders to position themselves in the commodity market. The gold-silver ratio above 100 is seen as positive for silver, making gold expensive. On the flip side, a fall to the 40s indicates the end of silver’s boom.
Going by historical trends, the precious metal liquidation cycle can last for 6 to 60 months, Aggarwal noted. For example, a precious bull market breather in 1998 lasted for nearly 4 years while a similar consolidation phase lasted only 9 months in 2008.
The end of the latest bull run in gold and silver prices is dependent on the bear market in the US, Ametra PMS’s CIO believes, as he expects the softness to continue till US equities maintain strength.
“In an improbable scenario, if the US manage to avoid a market crash until 2028, precious metals would be in for a long winter as in 1998. Though we expect US markets to crash in 2026 itself on account of unsustainable yields,” he opined, suggesting a revival in the gold and silver price rally.
Where are gold, silver prices headed?
Historically, strong rallies are often followed by consolidation phases. Chainwala said that the current macroeconomic backdrop is more supportive than in past cycles, with elevated global debt, global reserve diversification, ongoing currency debasement concerns, and sustained central bank demand providing a stronger foundation for prices.
For investors, she believes the message is one of cautious optimism: accumulate on dips rather than chase rallies.
“While short-term returns may be uneven, the medium-term outlook favours higher prices, supported by enduring macroeconomic and geopolitical tailwinds. Gold is expected to trade in a $4,000–$5,600 per ounce range this year, with potential to test $6,000 in the second half if rate cuts materialise, while silver, if it holds above $90 per ounce, could test $120,” she opined.
For Aggarwal, the bottom for gold in the present consolidation phase stands at $4,000 per ounce, while the silver bottom looks somewhere around $40. Investors are advised to hold on to their gold holdings for now and can start the next round of aggressive accumulation once the ratio crosses 80, he said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
