Gold prices rose for the fourth straight session on Tuesday, December 16 on MCX, as safe-haven demand remained strong following US labor market data, which increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the January meeting.
After another significant delay in the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday that 64,000 jobs were created in November, exceeding consensus forecasts of 51,000 and up from a sharp decline of 105,000 in October.
Although the data show US employment growth rising more than expected, economists note that the report also points to a clear slowing trend in the labor market. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, more than expected and its highest level since September 2021 and also up from September’s 4.5%.
Gold prices remain higher for fourth straight day
After touching a record high of ₹1,35,496 per 10 grams, the February futures contract on MCX opened lower at ₹1,33,523, compared to the previous close of ₹1,34,130, but recovered following the US jobs report, to reach an intraday high of ₹1,35,279.
By 8:10 PM IST, MCX gold was trading ₹2,684, or 0.80%, higher at ₹1,35,279 per 10 grams. Spot gold prices also traded higher by 0.53 at $4,303 per ounce.
Meanwhile, silver prices, too, remained higher, with March futures contracts surging nearly ₹1,485 per kilo to reach ₹1,99,386. Last week, prices crossed ₹2 lakh for the first time, reaching a record peak of ₹2,01,615. So far in 2025, silver prices have risen 130%, nearly double the gain of gold.
The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, hovered near two-month lows around 98.3 on Tuesday. Weakness in the dollar and growing concerns over a potential AI bubble in US markets prompted investors to gravitate toward safe-haven assets.
At its most recent meeting, the Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point but signaled that the threshold for further cuts remains high. The Fed has approved three consecutive reductions since September, taking its benchmark funds rate down to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%.
US rate futures briefly raise odds of January rate cut
Following the US employment data, futures on the federal funds rate, which track the cost of unsecured overnight loans between banks, briefly increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its January policy meeting on Tuesday.
The market priced in a 31% chance the Fed will reduce rates next month immediately after the nonfarm payrolls report, compared with 22% just before. It was last at 24%, while the odds for a pause were at 76%.
Gold price near term outlook
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said, “On the domestic front, MCX Gold marked fresh lifetime highs near ₹1,35,496 and formed a classic Doji candle near resistance, indicating profit booking at higher levels. Sustained trade above the breakout zone is essential to resume momentum, with the next expansion zone placed at ₹1,36,000– ₹1,38,000. The bullish structure remains intact as long as prices hold above ₹1,33,000– ₹1,32,600.”
He added, “MCX Silver remains in a strong bullish continuation phase after sustaining above ₹1,96,000 with healthy volumes and a constructive candle structure. Holding above this breakout zone keeps upside targets of ₹1,98,000– ₹2,03,000 active. Near-term support is placed at ₹1,91,000, with deeper support around ₹1,86,000, while the broader trend continues to remain firmly upward.”
(With inputs from Reuters)
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