In India, buying gold is not just an economic decision but also a symbolic one. Gold is purchased on certain festivals during the year as it is considered to bring prosperity, good luck and lasting wealth. Akshaya Tritiya is one such festival which falls at the start of the year, and has indeed proven lucrative for Indians, according to historical data.
A sharp increase in gold prices has added to investors’ wealth as the yellow metal in the Indian spot market has surged 60% since the last Akshaya Tritiya in April 2025. It is the ninth consecutive year that gold has provided investors with solid returns.
After hitting a record high above ₹180,000 in January this year, prices have pulled back and are likely setting the stage for a lucrative entry point for investors ahead of the festival of Akshaya Tritiya this year, which will fall on Sunday, April 19.
At current levels of around ₹150,000, gold prices are down 16% or ₹30,000 from recent highs as investors have booked profits following the sharp rally and inflation concerns amid rising crude oil prices.
Akshaya Tritiya, the second-biggest gold-buying festival in India after Dhanteras, is considered auspicious when buying gold.
Demand trends ahead of Akshaya Tritiya
Demand in India has remained firm ahead of this year’s Akshaya Tritiya, as geopolitical situation concerns, although elevated prices have limited aggressive buying from retail consumers, said Kaveri More, Commodity Technical Research at Choice Broking.
“Ahead of Akshaya Tritiya, jewellers usually make healthy purchases, but this year their buying is negligible. The atmosphere doesn’t suggest the festival is approaching,” said a Mumbai-based bullion dealer with a private bank, told Reuters.
Globally, China’s gold premiums have narrowed as demand softened, while the country’s central bank continued its gold purchases for the 17th straight month, reflecting sustained confidence in bullion.
Should you buy gold ahead of Akshaya Tritiya?
Analysts expect gold price momentum to continue, albeit at a slower pace, against the backdrop of a massive rise in the last few years. However, they believe that amid central bank buying and sustained geopolitical stress, gold makes for a lucrative asset to hold in one’s portfolio.
At current levels, gold should be viewed less as a return-chasing trade and more as a portfolio stabiliser, said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS. Since gold tends to perform well when global uncertainty rises, real interest rates soften, central banks remain active buyers, or geopolitical tensions stay elevated, the long-term case for the bullion is still intact, he added.
While cautioning that the “large part of the easy upside may already be behind us”, Dasani said that this does not mean gold cannot move higher from here, but expecting the same kind of return over the next one year may be unrealistic.
Avoid lump-sum buying of gold
Analysts advise buying in a staggered manner and avoiding any lump-sum and aggressive purchases. For investors who do not already own gold, some exposure still makes sense, but for those looking purely for strong one-year gains, this may not be the ideal entry point to be overly aggressive, said Dasani.
More of Choice Wealth echoed similar views, as she said that while gold’s long-term outlook remains positive, a staggered buying on dips could be the smarter strategy for those looking to invest for the next year with the healthy returns.
From a technical perspective, if gold has seen a breakout, and if momentum sustains, prices may head towards 155000, followed by 170000, with a possible retest of 181000 in the coming months, according to the expert. On the flip side, key downside support is seen at 136200, with a stronger base near 127500.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
