The shine of gold has only grown brighter since last Christmas, with the yellow metal registering over 50 record highs and emerging as one of the best-performing asset classes amid a period marked by multiple turning points, including US President Donald Trump’s aggressive moves to reshape global trade, which renewed the demand for safe-haven assets.
In the same period last year, MCX gold was quoted at ₹76,748 per 10 grams, and has gained ₹1,38,097 per 10 grams”>80% to trade at ₹1,38,097 per 10 grams, a massive surge that has also led analysts to raise their price forecasts multiple times, as previous targets have been surpassed earlier than expected. Analysts now expect the rally to continue next year as well.
The spot gold price has moved from $2,624 per troy ounce to the current trading price of $4,479, resulting in a stellar gain of 71% over the last one year.
Rising global risks, Trump trade actions and Fed easing underpin gold strength
For centuries, gold has earned a reputation as a reliable safe-haven asset. Its inherent ability to retain, and often appreciate, value makes it an attractive option for investors seeking stability amid market volatility. As a result, investors typically turn to gold during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Over the past year, the world has witnessed escalating geopolitical tensions involving several key countries, including oil-rich nations such as Russia and Iran, while conflicts in the Middle East remain unresolved.
The Russia–Ukraine war continues, and fresh escalations in US–Venezuela tensions have further sustained demand for gold. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve’s multiple interest rate cuts in 2025 have softened bond yields and weakened the US dollar, prompting investors to increase allocations to gold.
After Donald Trump assumed office for a second term as US President in January, he aggressively deployed tariffs across nearly all countries, challenging the global trade order that has largely remained intact since 1945.
Higher tariffs fuelled global uncertainty, driving investors toward gold as a safe haven. In February, reports also emerged that the Trump administration may impose trade restrictions on gold exports, while speculation grew about a potential US return to a gold-backed currency.
Beyond geopolitical risks and trade tariffs, record gold accumulation by major central banks has emerged as a key catalyst behind the rally. In an effort to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar, central banks have been steadily adding tones of the yellow metal to their vaults.
In March, reports suggested that BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—were in discussions to launch a common currency to bypass the dollar in global trade.
In response, Trump warned of imposing 100% tariffs on BRICS nations should they attempt to establish a new reserve currency to rival the US dollar, which has remained the world reserve currency since 1972.
Gold prices on track for biggest surge since 1979
The relentless rally in gold prices in 2025 has put the yellow metal on course for its best annual gain since the inflationary shock of 1979. Spot gold prices have surged nearly 71% so far this year, while domestic MCX gold has climbed about 80% during the same period.
MCX gold has closed 11 of the last 12 months in positive territory, underscoring the strength of the uptrend. September recorded the sharpest monthly rise at 13%, followed by December, with prices up around 9% so far.
Silver’s rally of around 150% this year has been even more spectacular than gold’s, with its most recent advance buoyed by speculative inflows and lingering supply dislocations across major trading hubs following a historic short squeeze in October
Disclaimer: We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
