Precious metals remain at the centre of global macro shifts, with gold holding near $4,600 levels and silver moving past $83, as geopolitical tensions, currency movements and institutional demand shape the near-term outlook.
Bullion prices weakened at the start of the week after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire began to unravel, triggering fresh volatility across commodities and financial markets.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted energy supply, pushing inflation expectations higher and reinforcing the likelihood of elevated interest rates, both of which act as negative factors for precious metals.
“Gold and silver prices weakened at the start of the week as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire began to unravel, raising doubts about whether the two-day ceasefire could hold and intensifying volatility across global commodity markets,” Augmont said in a recent report.
Currency dynamics further added pressure, with the U.S. dollar strengthening to a one-week high, while expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut dropped sharply to 21% from 40% earlier, following stronger inflation data and a resilient labour market.
At the same time, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields moved above 4.5%, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
“The extended conflict has disrupted energy supply significantly, increasing inflation risks and raising expectations of further central bank interest rate increases, both of which are negative factors for precious metals in the near term,” added the brokerage.
Gold, Silver prices today
Gold prices declined on Monday as a stronger dollar weighed on the metal, while fresh reports of the Strait of Hormuz being closed again pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,792.89 per ounce as of 0730 GMT, after touching its lowest level since April 13 earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures for June delivery dropped 1.4% to $4,812.20. The dollar index strengthened, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose 0.6%.
Oil prices surged and global equity markets turned volatile as escalating tensions in the Middle East severely disrupted shipping flows in and out of the Gulf.
Among other metals, spot silver declined 1.6% to $79.49 per ounce, platinum slipped 1.3% to $2,076.92, and palladium fell 1% to $1,543.74.
Gold, Silver Outlook
From a technical perspective, gold faces resistance at $4,850, with a sustained breakout potentially pushing prices toward $5,000, while key support remains at $4,600, according to Augmont.
Meanwhile, for Silver, it said, “Silver has met its prior target of $82 (~ ₹2,58,000). Prices are expected to consolidate in the near term before advancing toward $84 (~ ₹2,65,000) and subsequently $90 (~ ₹2,80,000).”
Furthermore, State Street Investment Management also believes that Gold prices consolidate and grind higher in 2026, probably in the high single digits or low double digits price return area as a conservative baseline. It sees a 50% probability of Gold price around $4,750-$5,500/oz in its base case scenario.
“The base case suggests the Fed could stay on pause after the December FOMC until 2H 2026 and the appointment of a new Fed chair. The USD grinds lower, but US growth also rebounds from a particularly lackluster 1H 2025. Central bank and China retail demand are within 3% of 2025 levels while gold ETF inflows are at 25-75% of the 2025 pace,” it noted.
ETF inflows, central bank buying support long-term outlook
Despite macro headwinds, investment demand for gold remained strong, with global gold ETFs witnessing inflows of 21 tonnes in early April, indicating continued institutional interest even in relatively stable market conditions.
Chinese gold ETFs attracted $8.1 billion year-to-date, while U.S. ETFs saw outflows of over $2 billion during the same period. Indian ETFs also recorded steady inflows, supported by seasonal demand ahead of Akshaya Tritiya.
Central bank activity remained a key pillar of support, with emerging market central banks, led by China and India, adding over 200 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, signalling sustained confidence in the metal.
Augmont noted, “Central bank gold buying remained strong in Q1 2026, with emerging market nations collectively adding over 200 tonnes year-to-date, signalling broader institutional confidence in gold despite ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainties.”
Silver fundamentals presented a mixed picture. China’s imports rose to 206.76 tonnes in the first two months of 2026, the highest in eight years, tightening supply. However, industrial demand is expected to decline 3% to 640 million ounces.
The report also highlighted a structural supply deficit in silver, with 762 million ounces drawn from stockpiles since 2021, raising the risk of a supply squeeze.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
