Gold prices have witnessed a sharp correction from their recent highs, entering into their bear phase, crashing around 20% from their recent peak, hit in January 2026. However, the broader outlook remains constructive as global uncertainties, central bank demand and macroeconomic factors continue to support the precious metal.
Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by increased expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes this year as elevated oil prices stoked inflation worries, with investors awaiting clarity on Middle East de-escalation efforts. Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,451.47 per ounce by 0811 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 2.3% to $4,448.
Experts believe that the recent fall is not a structural reversal but part of a healthy consolidation phase within a larger bullish trend.
“From a demand perspective, central bank buying, though moderating at higher levels, remains structurally strong, while ETF flows and institutional participation are expected to stabilise once volatility subsides. Geopolitical risks and fiscal concerns continue to underpin long-term demand. In India, lower prices are improving affordability, which could support physical demand, especially ahead of festive and wedding seasons. However, short-term investment demand may remain cautious due to price swings,” Dr. Renisha Chainani pointed out.
The pullback in gold prices has been driven by a combination of liquidity-led selling, a stronger US dollar and elevated real yields. However, these factors have not altered the long-term demand fundamentals. With geopolitical tensions still elevated and inflation concerns lingering, gold continues to retain its appeal as a safe-haven asset for investors.
Market participants are now closely watching interest rate trajectories, inflation trends and global risk developments, which are expected to dictate the next major move in gold prices. As sentiment shifts from extreme bullishness to cautious optimism, the focus has turned to key support and resistance levels that could define the metal’s near-term trajectory.
Gold price targets from experts
Dr. Renisha Chainani indicated that global gold prices have already corrected from the $5,100–$5,200 zone to around $4,500, while domestic prices have eased from around ₹1,60,000– ₹1,62,000 to nearly ₹1,43,000. In her view, key support remains intact at around $4,100–$4,000 globally, which translates to nearly ₹1,30,000 in the domestic market. This suggests that while prices may remain volatile, the downside may remain limited unless those support levels break decisively.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, outlined a more technical roadmap for gold. He noted that COMEX gold is currently trading in the $4,500–$4,600 band, with the $4,670–$4,750 range acting as an important resistance zone. A sustained move above $4,750 could push prices toward $4,850. On MCX, he highlighted that gold is currently trading in the ₹1,43,000– ₹1,45,000 resistance band. A sustained breakout above ₹1,48,000 could open the path toward ₹1,55,000– ₹1,57,000, while immediate support lies in the ₹1,37,000– ₹1,40,000 zone.
“COMEX Gold opened on a steady note, trading above key short-term moving averages, with prices currently hovering within the $4,500–$4,600 band. The overall structure is showing signs of recovery, supported by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to drive safe-haven demand and provide a strong underlying cushion to prices,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money
What should investors do now?
For investors, the current setup suggests caution but not panic. Dr. Renisha Chainani believes investor sentiment has shifted from extreme bullishness to cautious optimism, which means markets are now more sensitive to fresh triggers such as rate cuts, inflation data and geopolitical escalation. Her view suggests that investors should avoid chasing rallies aggressively, but should also not ignore the long-term bullish case for gold.
“Investor sentiment has shifted from extreme bullishness to cautious optimism, with markets now focusing on interest rates, inflation trajectory, and geopolitical developments. While near-term consolidation and range-bound movement are likely, any clarity on rate cuts or escalation in global risks could revive bullish momentum,” suggested Dr. Renisha Chainani
Ponmudi’s outlook also supports a buy-on-dips approach, as long as key support levels continue to hold. His reading of price action suggests that underlying buying interest remains strong despite intraday volatility. That means investors with a medium-term view may consider accumulating on declines rather than waiting for a breakout after the move has already begun.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
