Gold prices witnessed a robust rally in the first half of calendar year 2025 (H1CY25), driven by strong safe-haven demand and a combination of supportive macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The yellow metal outperformed most asset classes during the period, including silver and Indian equity benchmarks.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices surged 26.5% during H1CY25, outpacing the 23% rally in silver prices. In contrast, India’s key equity indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — posted relatively modest gains of 7.2% and 8.1%, respectively, during the same period.
According to analysts, several key factors — such as geopolitical tensions, expectations around US interest rates, and currency fluctuations — have already been priced into the market and reflected in gold’s sharp price gains.
Outlook for H2CY25: Silver May Outshine Gold
Heading into the second half of the year (H2CY25), analysts expect the gold rally to moderate, while silver could potentially emerge as a stronger performer.
“Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding US trade tariffs are diminishing, and expectations now point to either delayed or less aggressive interest rate cuts. The US dollar index, after a steep decline, also appears to be stabilising. These developments could temper the rally in gold prices,” said Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory.
Kedia highlighted the falling gold-silver ratio (GSR) — from a recent high of 107 to 91 — as a signal of silver’s potential to outperform gold. “A continued decline in the gold-silver ratio, coupled with easing trade tensions between the US and China, is favourable for silver prices,” he noted.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, expects gold prices to remain elevated in H2CY25 due to lingering geopolitical concerns but cautions about potential pullbacks if global growth recovers.
“MCX gold prices may continue to strengthen into Q3CY25, with key support likely above ₹1.05 lakh per 10 grams. Silver, on the other hand, looks poised for further gains, supported by industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles (EVs), along with strong safe-haven flows and technical indicators,” Trivedi said.
He added that bullish triggers for gold include renewed geopolitical flare-ups and sustained central bank buying. However, a global economic rebound, delayed rate cuts, or weakening demand could pose downside risks.
Silver is expected to benefit from rising industrial usage and supply constraints, while potential headwinds include profit booking, a stronger dollar, and a slowing economy.
Trivedi recommends a balanced investment approach: “Gold provides portfolio stability and acts as an insurance during times of crisis, while silver offers higher upside potential — albeit with greater volatility.”
Gold, Silver Price Outlook for H2CY25
For H2CY25, MCX gold prices are expected to find support around the ₹92,000 level, while COMEX gold may see support near $3,150 per ounce. Support for MCX silver is projected at ₹95,000 per kilogram, with COMEX silver likely to find support around $32.80 per ounce, according to Jigar Trivedi.
Ajay Kedia noted that COMEX gold prices could find support in the range of $3,080 to $3,100 per ounce, with resistance anticipated between $3,500 and $3,640. He added that if COMEX silver breaches the $37 mark, it could potentially test $40, while key support is placed at $32.50 per ounce.
In the domestic market, Kedia expects MCX gold price to have support at ₹91,500, with resistance at ₹1,02,400. A breakout above this level could push prices towards ₹1,08,000. For silver, support is seen in the ₹97,450 to ₹1,01,000 range, while resistance is expected between ₹1,12,000 and ₹1,30,000 during H2CY25.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
