Gold rate today: Despite the US-Iran war entering its fifth week, the precious yellow metal could log a2.20% weekly gain. The COMEX gold price finished at $4,679.70/oz, while the MCX gold rate ended at ₹1,49,650 per 10 gm. So, the gold price in India is around ₹31,000, or 17% below the record high of ₹1,80,779 per 10 gm.
According to market experts, after Donald Trump’s address to the nation, hopes of a ceasefire in the US-Iran war were shattered, and crude oil prices began to skyrocket, strengthening the US dollar and renewing inflation fears. However, better-than-expected US payroll jobs data is expected to cool inflation fears and resilience in the US economy against all odds. This strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish bias, supporting the dollar and limiting upside in bullion.
Gold rate today: Factors that matter
On why the gold price rally is tepid despite the US-Iran war, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said that gold prices edged higher by nearly 2.2%% during the week, but the upside remained capped as crude oil surged over 10%, intensifying inflation concerns and altering the traditional safe-haven dynamics. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, gold has corrected by nearly 7% since the onset of the Iran conflict on 28th February, highlighting a shift in investor preference towards the US dollar as the primary safe-haven asset.
US-Iran war
Sugandha Sachdeva said that geopolitical narrative remains highly fluid. While initial signals from Donald Trump and Iran hinted at a potential ceasefire, recent rhetoric has turned more aggressive, with renewed threats of prolonged military action.
“The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s IRGC Navy has kept oil prices elevated, raising concerns over imported inflation and reinforcing expectations of a tighter monetary stance in the U.S,” she added.
Better-than-expected US payroll data
From a macro perspective, stronger-than-expected US labor market data for March, non-farm payroll additions of 178K versus 65K expected, a lower unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to 4.4% forecast and stable wage growth, indicate resilience in the economy.
“This strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish bias, supporting the dollar and limiting upside in bullion. Additionally, persistent ETF outflows throughout March, with redemptions significantly exceeding inflows, reflect weakening investment demand for gold,” said Sugandha of SS WealthStreet.
Outlook for the gold price today
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, believes the lack of strong follow-through buying suggests global markets remain in a wait-and-watch mode, with sentiment balanced between caution and stability. The real impact will depend on how geopolitical developments evolve from here, as markets are currently pricing in uncertainty without fully committing to a directional trend.
“Post-Trump’s address to the nation, markets are showing a measured reaction rather than panic, indicating that risk sentiment remains controlled for now. This has capped aggressive safe-haven flows into gold, keeping rallies restricted,” the Enrich Money expert said.
Ponmudi R of Enrich Money said the COMEX gold rate today is holding above key short-term moving averages while continuing to face resistance in the $4,700–$4,750 zone.
“A decisive breakout above $4,800 could extend the move toward $4,850, with further upside potential toward $4,900, where strong supply is expected. On the downside, a sustained break below $4,600 may accelerate selling pressure toward $4,550–$4,500, with extended weakness possibly dragging prices toward $4,400,” the Enrich Money CEO said.
Gold rate today in India: How to trade?
“Technically, gold continues to consolidate where it faces a strong resistance zone at ₹1,57,600 to ₹1,58,800 per 10 gm at the domestic bourses and $4,800–$4,880 per ounce in the international markets. Unless these levels are decisively breached, the upside remains constrained. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $4,400 and ₹1,44,000 to ₹1,45,000 per 10 gm, with a breach potentially triggering further corrective pressure,” said Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet.
Sugandha maintained that the gold rate today remains caught between geopolitical uncertainty and macro headwinds, with price action increasingly dictated by crude oil trends and dollar strength. As long as oil prices remain elevated and rate-cut expectations stay delayed, bullion is likely to witness sharp, headline-driven volatility rather than a sustained directional rally.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
