Gold prices continued their upward momentum in domestic markets on Monday, July 14, buoyed by growing global uncertainty following fresh tariff threats from the United States. With US President Donald Trump escalating his trade offensive and investor appetite for safe-haven assets strengthening, Emkay Wealth Management believes the yellow metal is poised to break out of its current consolidation phase and enter a fresh uptrend.
Gold gains amid global trade war worries
Gold futures for August delivery on MCX were trading 0.31 percent higher at ₹98,117 per 10 grams early Monday, reflecting rising investor nervousness after Trump threatened to impose a 30 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union beginning August 1. The move has raised concerns over renewed trade tensions, leading to increased volatility in global markets and prompting investors to seek refuge in gold.
Trump has targeted over 22 countries with new tariff announcements, justifying the move with claims of trade imbalances and “common sense” economics. In response, the European Union has opted to extend its suspension of countermeasures against the US until August 1, 2025, hoping to reach a diplomatic resolution.
Emkay expects upward trajectory after consolidation
According to Emkay Wealth Management’s latest Navigator report, gold is currently in a consolidation phase internationally—a pattern that typically precedes a strong upward movement. The wealth management firm noted that earlier in 2025, robust demand from China had helped support gold prices. However, with Chinese selling between April and May, this factor has faded in influence. In contrast, the recent strengthening of the US dollar and rising US bond yields have exerted short-term downward pressure on gold.
Emkay highlighted two key triggers for a potential upside in gold. The first is the trajectory of US interest rates. With the Federal Reserve still undecided on rate changes due to uncertain inflation dynamics, one of the main catalysts for gold remains subdued. However, Emkay believes a rate cut by the Fed remains likely before the end of the calendar year, driven by soft inflation and macroeconomic challenges.
The second potential trigger is the weakening of the US dollar. The Dollar Index has fallen by nearly 10 percent since the beginning of 2025, already reflecting in gold’s performance. Emkay, however, believes a further drop in the dollar—possibly caused by rate cuts and declining yields—could create fresh upside for gold. The firm also pointed out that the US government’s proposed $4.6 trillion in spending could place further strain on bond yields, complicating the dollar’s outlook.
Overall, with global trade tensions intensifying and uncertainty clouding the economic outlook, investor interest in safe-haven assets like gold continues to grow. Emkay Wealth Management sees the current consolidation as a potential launchpad for higher gold prices, especially if the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts and the US dollar weakens further. While silver has already taken the lead in the recent commodity rally, gold could soon follow with renewed strength amid the evolving macroeconomic backdrop.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
